A changed playing field

TUNNEL TRAGEDY, which destroyed the Del Valle family, has power to open old wounds and entangle fates of many political figures: Mitt Romney, Kerry Healey, Tom Reilly, and Christy Mihos. Major shift in Zeitgeist. Everything has changed.

GOP at war. Romney's national reputation and thus his presidential hopes are at stake. Lieutenant Governor Healey tags along with Romney at accident site, looking out of place and out of fashion in her Day-Glo orange vest. Attorney General Reilly's gubernatorial chances will rise or fall on how he handles investigation. Mihos is preaching I-told-you-so and gunning for vindication. Ditto for former treasurer Joe Malone. We are about to refight Big Dig wars. With Republicans attacking each other.

Democratic arms control. State Democratic Party wants to prevent internecine war. New panel will review campaign advertisements and issue letters of rebuke to Democrats for governor who go negative. Head of panel is former governor and former presidential candidate Mike Dukakis. Also on panel is Cam Kerry, increasingly ambitious brother of US Senator John Kerry.

Solution without problem. Panel aims to prevent negative ads in primary that leave winner badly bruised for general election. But Shannon O'Brien didn't lose last time because she was attacked in primary. No Democrat attacked her on television. In general election, candidate Romney successfully tied her to State House ``Gang of Three."

In 1998, Lieutenant Governor Paul Cellucci and Attorney General Scott Harshbarger faced primary challenges. State treasurer Joe Malone threw punch after punch at Cellucci. Harshbarger didn't get scratched in his primary. Cellucci won. Democrats lose governorships in general elections, not primaries.

King and Gephardt. Globe noted Dukakis ran tough spots against Democrat Ed King, who had knocked Dukakis out of governor's office.

In 1988 presidential campaign, Dukakis responded to Belgian endive attack spot from primary opponent Dick Gephardt. Man in dark suit did acrobatic flips and somersaults as Gephardt's contorted public positions were cited. Gephardt got wiped out in Super Tuesday primaries. Week later, he dropped out. I confess. I made acrobat spot with help from consultant Mike Shea.

Why attacks work. Same reason gossip sticks. Suppose I tell you John Dough is wonderful guy, kind to wife, pets and children, recycles, and volunteers for charity. You may or may not believe me. Chances are you'll forget it. However, if somebody else tells you John Dough is dead-beat who drinks and carries on in polite society, you may or may not believe it. But you won't forget it. Negative messages also work because uninformed cynicism is fashionable. ``What difference does it make? They're all crooks anyway." Tunnel disaster will only fuel that.

How to define negative. We're not trying to explain prime number here. It's any spot that mentions your opponent, by name, office, image, or other identification.

Positive is hard. Two reasons why political TV spots are so negative: 1) Hardest thing for media consultant to do is make compelling positive TV spot. 2) Candidate starts to lose ground, can't believe voters are falling for what other candidates are saying, and insists on doing what they've been doing to us. Even now, every candidate for governor has brief against both of his opponents sufficient to justify negative messages.

This is self-policing business. As Miami mobster Hyman Roth told rival Michael Corleone in ``Godfather II," ``This is the business we have chosen." Nobody forces you to run for office. If you're attacked, don't complain. Fight back.

Better idea. Public letter of reprimand is going to be ignored by campaigns. Dukakis panel should insist that media organizations, before they run spots, obtain supporting documentation from sponsoring campaign. TV and cable stations should supply video copies of every spot to opponents 48 hours before they appear. Is this too much to ask of stations making thousands, maybe millions, from political campaigns?

Web ad watch. Advertising should be fact-checked by news media and posted prominently on their websites. Spots that are wrong or unfair should be described in bold, colorful language: False. Bogus. Crock. Lie. Hypocrisy. Cheesy. Sleazy. I'll stop before Seven Dwarfs complain.

Latest poll. State House News Service survey says: Deval Patrick 35 percent, Chris Gabrieli 22, Tom Reilly 19. With less than 10 weeks to primary, looks like somebody's going to be getting letter from Dukakis.

Dan Payne is a Boston-based media consultant who has worked for former governors Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, Angus King of Maine, and until November 2005, for Deval Patrick.