Who wins on primary day?
FUNG WAH BUS comes to mind when thinking about Tom Reilly's gubernatorial campaign. Bus line offers big savings. But buses tend to crash and catch fire. After showing signs of life as Regular Guy, Reilly morphed into Bitter Man at the Kennedy School debate. Why did he conjure up low point in his campaign, L'Affair St. Fleur?
For poll-craving junkies. State House News poll has it Deval Patrick 36 percent, Chris Gabrieli 26, Reilly 19. Channel 4 poll has it Patrick 45 percent (had been 34), Gabrieli 29 (30), Reilly 21 (29). Imagine you're Gabrieli and you've spent $10 million of your money and you're trailing guy whose TV spending is a fraction of yours.
Hidden vote. Propensity of white voters to tell pollsters they're undecided when they are actually against black candidates. Happened to Harvey Gant, who lost to Senator Jesse Helms in North Carolina by wide margin after polls showed close contest. Doug Wilder, running for governor of Virginia, had a 20-point lead in polls, and won by 4.
Gabrieli's Techistan. Based on earlier Globe poll, Gabrieli voters are least likely to vote. They're least partisan, least politically active. They have technology jobs, do deals, own McMansions, and drive huge SUVs. They live in Techistan -- between Route 128 and Interstate 495. Gabby hopes to get them to vote using telemarketers and recorded robo-calls.
Patrick and Bush. Patrick volunteers are many and pumped. His field operation is said to rival Mike Dukakis's, only juiced with Internet. Patrick base is liberals, gays, black voters, Latino voters, environmentalists, atheists, healthcare reformers, professors, peaceniks, pro-choice marchers, antigun protesters, health store shoppers, progressive unions, teachers, social workers, and those who hear justice in his voice. In short, anybody who can't stand President Bush.
Don't ``misunderestimate" Reilly. Mayor Tom Menino, US Representative Steve Lynch, and former district attorney Ralph Martin are helping Reilly in Boston. As are sheriff and former state senator Guy Glodis in Worcester and US Representative Marty Meehan in Merrimack Valley. Reilly's from Springfield and was twice elected DA in the biggest county, Middlesex.
How low can Galvin go? Why did Secretary of State Bill Galvin forecast low (20 percent) turnout weeks before the primary? What public purpose is served by such an announcement? Are we in danger of providing too many voting machines? Doesn't predicting low turnout encourage voters to skip primary? Isn't his job to raise turnout?
Only Deb can do this. The Brookline Tab, Deb Goldberg's hometown paper, endorsed her opponent Andrea Silbert, who runs a nonprofit that trains female entrepreneurs. The Tab also praised the third candidate, Worcester Mayor Tim Murray.
The editorial said, ``Goldberg has been taking too much credit for wonderful things about Brookline, especially considering she was chairman of Brookline's Board of Selectmen for only two years. Her recent comment that she had `58,000 lives to worry about, especially in a post-9/11 world' and her bragging about managing a nearly $200 million budget, doesn't just overinflate the chairman's job. It's an insult to Brookline's public safety workers, the town manager, the other selectmen, and Town Meeting members."
As for Deb's TV spot claiming she increased firefighters, a conscientious Brookline blogger looked it up. During her term, the number of firefighters in Brookline remained the same, 122. And firefighter who says in her TV spot ``only Deb can do it," isn't a Brookline firefighter. He's president of Firefighters Local 817 in Boston.
Still, new poll has Deb and her $2 million at 18 percent, Murray 15, Silbert 10.
Translating clichés. Candidate who says, ``The only poll that counts is on election day," is losing. Candidate who says, ``I won't back down to the special interests," is losing. Candidate who says, ``If our people turn out, we'll be fine," is losing. Candidate who says, ``Our message is starting to resonate with voters," is losing. Candidate who says, ``We're going to surprise a lot of people," is going to be surprised by losing.
Who wins? If Galvin's right about turnout, Patrick wins. If it's up, Gabrieli has shot. Reilly wins by pulling someone out of burning bus.
Dan Payne is a Boston-based media consultant who has worked for former governor Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts and, until November 2005, for candidate Deval L. Patrick. He also analyzes the governor's race for WBUR-FM. 
