An insider's guide to the campaign

MORE THAN 900,000 voters turn out in the Democratic primary. Around 150,000 viewers tune in to the first debate, even at the busy hour of 6 p.m. on a Monday. Radio talk shows and political blogs are buzzing. Voter interest is at its highest level since 1990.

The race for governor is sizzling. You have some questions. Here are some answers:

Who is winning? The latest snapshot is from a Rasmussen Group robot poll: Deval Patrick 57 percent, Kerry Healey 24 percent, Christy Mihos 15 percent. This poll was taken before the first debate.

Why is Patrick so far ahead? As a very wise man once said, ``In modern American politics, there are three kinds of campaigns: personality campaigns, issues campaigns, and structure campaigns." So far, this has been a personality campaign. Patrick, with his amazing life story, strong speaking skills, and genial manner, is the strongest personality candidate to appear on the state's political scene in years. As long as it is a personality campaign, Patrick will be the leader.

Can Healey catch him? Sure, if she can turn it into an issues campaign. Healey is a William Weld-style Republican, like those who have won time after time in Northeastern states by being fiscally conservative and socially libertarian, and by pledging to stand up to the Legislature, which is controlled by Democrats. The voters agree with Healey on most important campaign issues, such as tax cuts, education reform, and illegal immigration. Patrick is on the wrong side of all three issues -- and others, such as crime. Look for Healey to use her ads to clearly spell out the differences.

Will Mihos be a factor in the race? He can't win. He has said that if he couldn't win, he wanted Patrick to win. So the Healey team can no longer ignore him. Mihos's bizarre performance as Patrick's pit bull in the first debate -- screaming in Healey's face for almost the entire time -- showed he will do anything to help Patrick win. With his huge personal fortune, he can keep buying ads to continue his attacks on Healey. He might just be the sour spoiler in this election. The liberal, Patrick-supporting blogs sure think so. They are calling Mihos their new hero.

And Grace Ross? With Patrick sure to capture 99 percent of the moonbat vote, she won't do nearly as well as the Green-Rainbow candidate did four years ago.

What will happen next? Patrick's netroots political army has to scare rank-and-file Democrats. Some have already said Patrick is too liberal for voters in their districts. And how would you like to be, say, Marty Meehan? The longtime politician has been patiently waiting for his try at an office like governor or US senator, only to see Patrick come out of nowhere to crush his political mentor, Tom Reilly, and take over the party. No wonder John Kerry is acting like Patrick's shadow these days. Few Democrats will endorse Healey. But will they work hard for Patrick? And what will they do in the voting booth? During three-on-one attacks in the first debate, Healey stood her ground. That should help her lock down most of the Republican and conservative independent voters she needs to get her numbers up. Independent women voters are the key group for Healey, and the image of an angry man with bad tan yelling at her may help her gain some of those votes.

Will there be a one-on-one debate between Patrick and Healey? There should be at least one. The final debate during the last week of the campaign would be the perfect opportunity.

Who or what outside of the candidates could make a difference? Ignore the national bigwigs like Bill Clinton who are coming in to campaign for the candidates. Clinton came in twice for Shannon O'Brien in 2002, and he didn't get her one vote. Mitt Romney can help Healey by setting the record straight on attacks by Patrick and Mihos. Most voters think Romney has done a good job, and he has credibility on such issues as the Big Dig. Meanwhile, Patrick's public embrace of Michael Dukakis may have been a big mistake. Nobody who was around in the late 1980s wants to go back to the dismal Dukakis days, the last time Massachusetts had a liberal Democratic governor.

Charley Manning is a Boston-based strategic consultant. He was an adviser to three of the last four winning Republican gubernatorial campaigns: William Weld in 1990 and 1994 and Mitt Romney in 2002.