Getting numbers right

THE US CONSTITUTION mandates a census every 10 years, and the Census Bureau fulfills this responsibility with admirable efficiency. But 10 years is a long time. Government agencies, business owners, and academics want more up-to-date information . So, the Census has taken to estimating population shifts each year in between the actual counts.

While the bureau is careful to call these numbers "estimates," they take on a life of their own -- and often function as a substitute for an actual count. Federal agencies rely on these numbers to distribute grants. Corporations use them to make marketing and location decisions.

The estimate for Boston started showing a decline in 2002; the Massachusetts estimate started heading south a few years later, in 2004.

Some people, including Boston city officials and our agency, the Metropolitan Area Planning Council, protested that the numbers seemed low. We warned that estimates undercount certain populations, such as college students, immigrants, and public housing tenants. Yet the population-loss story line took hold, and almost everybody thought it was true.

The media ran front-page news articles and editorials bemoaning the losses. Polls were conducted to find out why everyone was fleeing Massachusetts. Seminars were held to figure out what was going wrong. Some candidates for public office used the alleged loss of population to call for tax cuts, less environmental regulation, and faster approvals for business location; others saw the same numbers as a reason to build more affordable housing and spend more on education.

The City of Boston challenged its numbers. And on Oct. 26, the Census Bureau accepted much of that challenge and increased the city's estimated population from 559,034 to 596,638 -- a significant jump of 6.7 percent. At least one other challenge, by the City of Medford, is still pending. Although it will take a few months to crunch the numbers , by December the Massachusetts estimate will probably go up, too.

This was a big fight over a small difference. Massachusetts is a slow-growing state. We struggle with an out-migration of wage earners in their most economically productive years, but we also benefit from people who migrate in, especially from foreign countries, many of whom arrive with significant skills . Historically, those arriving in Massachusetts have outnumbered those who leave, and that continues to be the case.

Next time, we can avoid this brouhaha by helping the Census Bureau to get the numbers right the first time. Cities and towns, planning and permitting departments, the Legislature , the governor, and the secretary of state all have a role to play in providing the Census Bureau the information they need for a good estimate. As we approach the 2010 Census, these roles need to be taken seriously.

For example, building permits are one of the critical pieces of information the Census Bureau uses to estimate new housing units. It asks every city and town for monthly or annual building permit data. Over 50 municipalities in Massachusetts -- 1 out of every 7 -- did not report building permits in 2004. Is it a surprise the Census estimates show a decline if the bureau doesn't know how many new homes are being built?

Other states recognize the importance of this issue and spend accordingly. New York and Utah are investing substantial amounts of money to make sure the Census Bureau gets their population right. Not coincidentally, these are among the states with whom we are competing for congressional seats. Utah is looking to pick up a seat; New York, like Massachusetts, is trying to dodge a bullet. The numbers will decide who wins.

Last year, the Legislature appropriated Secretary of State William Galvin $100,000 for a population projection program at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute. That was a step in the right direction, but a tiny one. Actually, $800,000 is needed -- a modest sum compared with all the federal funding we could lose if we are undercounted, not to mention the value of a lost member of Congress.

The lesson to take away from Boston's successful challenge is not that we were right and they were wrong. The lesson is that while challenges may work, it's better to get the numbers right the first time.

Marc Draisen is executive director of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. Holly St. Clair is manager of the council's Metropolitan Data Center.