John Kerry's neverland

IT'S OFFICIAL yet again. John Kerry is running for re election to the US Senate next year. He is not running for president.

Make that almost definitely not running for president.

Kerry spokesman Vincent Morris said his boss did not mean to leave the door open when he recently told a Denver television station, "If suddenly the field changed or the dynamics of the nation shifted, who knows?" It's just that in politics, Morris said, "You can never say never."

Meanwhile, invitations to a May 21 "celebration" of Kerry's re election bid are already in the hands of prominent Massachusetts Democrats. Not every recipient is thrilled. But it's the best evidence yet that Kerry is running again for Senate, no matter how much it pains him to give up the presidential hunt.

The senator is summoning the party faithful to a South Boston event that will feature actor Denis Leary. As Kerry puts it in the invite: "I've been honored to represent the citizens of Massachusetts in the United States Senate now for 22 years. And I pledge that in the years ahead, I'm going to keep fighting on for the people and for the principles that I've learned and lived right here at home."

Like it or not, Kerry could end up a US senator for life, even though his popularity is down since his glory days as a presidential nominee.

A December 2006 Survey USA poll put Kerry's approval rating in Massachusetts at 43 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. A more recent poll conducted by Suffolk University and 7News suggests that Bay State voters are, fittingly, for and against their junior senator. When 400 registered voters were asked whether Kerry should run for another six-year term, 56 percent of them said that it is time to give someone else a chance. However, in the same survey, Kerry easily beats two Democrats -- Secretary of State William F. Galvin and unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Christopher Gabrieli -- in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

The political reality: It's hard to imagine a credible, well-funded challenger who is ready, willing, and able to challenge Kerry in a Democratic primary. "You never say never, but we'd certainly be surprised," Morris said.

Every significant Democrat is backing Kerry's Senate bid, said Philip Johnston, the former Democratic state party chairman and co-chairman of the May 21 event. "He will have the unanimous support," Johnston said, "of all the Democratic Party office holders, the entire congressional delegation, organized labor, women, and the gay community. There isn't one constituency where he won't have strong support. And he is very well financed."

Incidentally, Johnston said he doubts the Suffolk University poll results: "If he's down at all, it has to be confusion over whether he's still interested in the presidency. I think he remains a popular figure in Massachusetts."

It's even harder to imagine a Republican challenger strong enough to defeat Kerry in a Massachusetts general election, especially during a presidential election year. The name of Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling was bandied about for awhile; but even Schilling's enormous popularity within Red Sox Nation would run up against the immense unpopularity of the current Republican regime in Washington.

By state law, Kerry couldn't be a candidate for both the presidency and the US Senate on the November 2008 ballot. That put pressure on the senator -- even though a second Democratic presidential nomination would be a long shot -- to announce his intentions about 2008 earlier than he might have preferred. If Kerry chose the presidential run, an open Senate seat could have lured a slew of Democrats, including US Representatives Martin Meehan and Stephen Lynch, into a primary race. Once Kerry said he was running for re election, Meehan decided to leave Congress to take on the chancellorship of the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

Now, six Democrats have announced their candidacy for Meehan's seat. A Republican, Air Force Lieutenant Colonel James Ogonowski -- the brother of one of the pilots of the airplanes which were crashed into the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001 -- is also running.

That's the way politics works in Massachusetts. Democrats don't challenge incumbent Democrats, nor take on the party favorite. And Republicans are lucky to find someone willing to wage an uphill battle against the Democratic establishment.

One brave outsider recently challenged the status quo. Deval Patrick took on a powerful attorney general and eventually won a three-man primary. He is now governor of Massachusetts.

Another Democrat like that isn't obvious on the political horizon. But, as Kerry would say, you never say never.

Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com.