Stakes are high on all sides of an unstable Iraq

"IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS have everything at stake here," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said recently to emphasize the link between the future of Iraq and the future of the Middle East. Yet, the region -- Egypt in particular -- needs no reminder of this stark reality.

The stakes are indeed high. Iraq's continuous slide into ethnic conflict and internal fragmentation poses enormous challenges for the region's security and stability. If left to fester, Iraq's sectarian fault lines will spill beyond its borders. The growing vacuum left by the breakdown of central authority will be filled by the rising influence of ethnic and tribally based militias. Iraq's neighbors will strive to fill that vacuum, thus increasing the propensity for regional intervention in Iraq's internal affairs, both to prevent the chaos from spreading to their own borders, and to cultivate proxies among Iraq's protagonists to increase their influence. All this will turn Iraq into a regional hub for terrorism similar to -- if not worse than -- that which prevailed in Afghanistan during the 1990s as it disintegrated into civil war in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal.

In such an environment, the region's aspirations for a better future will no doubt be challenged. Egypt has long recognized the link between regional stability and internal reform. After pioneering the path of peace that resulted in our peace treaty with Israel, Egypt embarked on a process of internal transformation from a centrally managed economy to one based on the private sector that achieved a 7 percent rate of growth; from a single-party political system to one based on multi-party pluralism. We know full well that sustaining this transformation requires a conducive regional environment; one that faces a profound challenge in the form of a collapsing Iraq.

Despite Egypt's disagreement with the United States over the invasion, this has not detracted from its efforts to ensure the emergence of a viable Iraq. Egypt was pivotal in forging an Arab consensus that allowed for acceptance of the Iraqi Governing Council into the Arab League following the war. President Mubarak's recent meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is clearly indicative of Egypt's support for his efforts at political reconciliation. It was this fundamental position that lay behind Egypt's hosting of the recent ministerial conference on Iraq, bringing together Iraq's neighbors and the international community to forge a new "International Compact" with Iraq.

Yet, as the region and the international community increase their support for Iraq, the greater burden falls on the Iraqi government to expeditiously implement the hard steps necessary for security and political reconciliation. Critical among these is the revision of the Constitution to provide a framework for greater integration of Iraq's Sunni population into the political process. Complementing this must be a serious effort to reverse the de-Baathification process that has fueled much of the rejectionism among the Sunnis, and deprived Iraq's bureaucracy of the talent needed for the effective functioning of the civil service. Closely linked with this is the revival of the Iraqi army, an institution that has historically constituted a pillar of national unity among Iraq's various ethnic groups.

The militias that now ravage innocent populations on all sides of the sectarian divide must be dismantled and integrated effectively into the ranks of Iraq's regular security forces. The urgency of this objective cannot be emphasized enough; there can be no future for Iraq if the government's monopoly on the use of force is challenged by sub-state entities that undermine the very foundations of the state. All of this would pave the way for launching a national reconciliation process that would ensure that Iraq's politics are organized around a solid framework of national unity, rather than on the shaky foundations of sectarianism.

The deliberations of the ministerial conference at Sharm El-Sheikh reflected a general consensus regarding these objectives. They also generally reflect the benchmarks the United States itself has set for the Maliki government. If Iraq is to avoid the dangerous slide toward civil war, the Iraqi government must demonstrate a commitment to place Iraq firmly on the path of reconciliation, rather than remain beholden to the sectarian agendas that threaten Iraq's very unity.

There can be no mistake: A failed state in Iraq will present the region -- and the world -- with a dire security challenge for decades to come. The stakes in Iraq are clear. The responsibility of the region and the international community to ensure Iraq's emergence as a unified, viable, independent state is equally clear. That objective must begin with the Iraqis themselves, for it is they who must assume ownership for their future. We can only hope that the Iraqi government recognizes the heavy burden it must now carry.

Ahmed Aboul Gheit is Egyptian minister of foreign affairs.