United in ambivalence

HERE'S A simple truism in presidential politics: The party that is least united usually loses.

But what side is that this year?

Well, which party does this describe?

The front-runner is a polarizing New Yorker, someone both loved and loathed.

A handsome charmer, considered the real deal by devotees but an expedient panderer by detractors, is cultivating the party's ardent ideological believers.

From the sidelines, meanwhile, an out-of-office Tennessean casts a seductive shadow -- a shadow whose very length reflects the ambivalence about those in the race.

The Republicans?

The Democrats?

Both, actually.

But certainly Republican discontent seems to run far deeper than Democratic uncertainty. In an April Wall Street Journal poll, only 53 percent of Republicans declared themselves satisfied with their party's candidates, compared with 78 percent of Democrats who liked their options.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani's support of abortion rights raises alarms with conservatives. And then there's the soap opera saga of the former mayor's personal life.

Senator John McCain, 2000's appealing maverick, now sometimes seems tense, testy, and tired on TV. Further, McCain, never a favorite of conservatives, has lashed himself so tightly to the mast in support of President Bush's Iraq policy that it has cost him much of his independent and crossover appeal.

The headline on Time magazine's recent cover story illustrates one of Mitt Romney's big problems: "Sure, he looks like a president. But what does Mitt Romney really believe?"

Certainly Massachusetts' former governor would present a broad target for the sort of flip-flop attacks that bedeviled John Kerry in 2004. His Mormonism, meanwhile, remains a roadblock to luring the GOP's religious wing.

Still, with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee, no other candidate seems positioned to break into the top tier. In that light, it's not surprising that former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, a might-be candidate, shows well in the polls, often drawing as much support as any Republican hopeful save Giuliani and McCain.

Compared with the spring of discontent on the Republican side, Democrats face a lesser problem: the lack of a truly persuasive fit, a candidate with that cogent combination of experience and inspiration, vision and viability.

Hillary Clinton is pitching a reassuring competence and moderation, from a battle-tested Washington veteran. Yet the cautious nature of Clinton's carefully modulated campaign leaves some liberals cold. Further, questions linger about whether she can win -- as do whispered worries about the double-edged sword that is her husband.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama has attracted those in search of something new. But though some supporters see a 21st-century Abraham Lincoln, Obama is less than three years removed from the Illinois state Senate. Despite his inspirational appeal, he's got considerable work to do to demonstrate he's the one to lead the Democrats in 2008.

John Edwards's steady leftward tack has pleased labor and the netroots -- but it has also opened him to accusations of a Romney-like transformation. Further, news reports like those about the $55,000 Edwards received to speak (about poverty, no less) at the University of California in 2006 and his two $400 haircuts have raised doubts about his political acuity.

The continuing search for the most compelling figure helps explain the ongoing appeal of former vice president Al Gore. He's the Democrat who best combines experience, vision, and passion -- and the Tennessean has won the popular vote once.

Why, there he is now, gazing fixedly off the edge of Time for a cover story that coincides with the release of his new book, "The Assault on Reason." Nowhere in the accompanying article does Gore express any real interest in running -- but nowhere does he quite slam the door, either.

With that unsettled state, and the first Granite State Democratic debate set for June 3, it's far too early to write off New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, owner of the Democrats' most interesting resume, or Senator Joe Biden, the candidate most fluent in foreign affairs. Or the determined Senator Chris Dodd.

Here's the irony when you compare and contrast. Two of the three in the Republican top tier -- Giuliani and McCain -- arguably rank among the GOP's most experienced and accomplished leaders.

The same can't be said of the leading Democrats. And yet, at least at this moment, it's far easier to see the Democratic Party rallying around its nominee, whoever he or she may be.

Scot Lehigh's e-mail address is lehigh@globe.com.