DiMasi holds the cards
THE MAN most likely to decide whether Massachusetts gambles on casino gambling isn't Governor Deval Patrick.
It's Speaker of the House Salvatore F. DiMasi.
The governor must sign off on any deal that would allow the Mashpee Wampanoag tribe to build the state's first casino in Middleborough -- or, for that matter, on any casino deal.
But there's no casino without, first, an affirmative vote by the state Legislature. Senate President Therese Murray backs expanded gambling. DiMasi is a longstanding opponent. If DiMasi's not on board, what Patrick wants doesn't matter.
DiMasi isn't talking about his current thinking on the subject. However, David Guarino, his director of communications, is e-mailing.
On Aug. 2, the Globe published a powerful antigambling opinion piece by former attorney general Scott Harshbarger. Under the headline, "Casinos -- the new gold rush," Harshbarger argued that the Middleborough proposal "is all about money, special interests, and politics." He also questioned how much Massachusetts would benefit from the plethora of Bay State casinos that could be Middleborough's legacy.
That morning, Guarino sent this missive to Harshbarger: "I enjoyed your op ed today -- very well thought out. It is nice to have another voice besides the speaker and Chairman [Daniel] Bosley raising these concerns. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, particularly after the governor weighs in."
DiMasi always opposed casinos and slot machines on the grounds that the economic benefits would not be as grand as predicted, and not worth the social costs. From Guarino's e-mail, it sounds like the speaker is happy to have someone else buttress those arguments in a public forum.
But, will DiMasi impose this view yet again upon the House? Or, this time, will he leave it up to House members to decide casino gambling's fate? Can he withstand the argument of inevitability that gives this latest push by the casino lobby its potency and momentum? Not so long ago, state Auditor Joseph DeNucci suggested that DiMasi "is warming up to it."
There's a lot at stake -- the economic interests of the gaming industry, the public interest in balancing new revenue against social costs and the political interests of a new governor.
Casino owners are guaranteed a fortune and the public gets a tiny piece of it. If DiMasi blocks expanded gambling, he also blocks Patrick's ability to raise extra cash to underwrite an ambitious, first-term agenda. If Patrick can't deliver on campaign promises to cut property taxes and increase aid to education and public safety programs, he will be answering to some highly disillusioned voters.
DiMasi already said no to Patrick's proposals to increase state revenue by increasing the meals tax and closing corporate tax loopholes. The speaker's resistance made him the darling of the business community and denied the Patrick administration several hundred million dollars in new revenue.
Since Patrick took office, DiMasi is showing a willingness to thwart him. At the same, he is standing up less to the business community.
Back in 2005, when Beacon Hill took up healthcare reform, it was DiMasi who insisted business must chare the cost of expanded coverage to the uninsured. In 2007, it is DiMasi who became the business community's new best friend by declaring Patrick's modest tax proposals dead on arrival.
DiMasi recently asked Patrick to rescind a $10 million grant for a controversial development, saying it represented inappropriate corporate welfare. But it will take even more fortitude and spine to stand up to the business interests fanning the Bay State's gambling fever. Much of the state's political leadership already seems under its spell.
At the least, DiMasi should oversee a full and open debate on the merits of casino gambling. That packet of economic studies that is now in the governor's hands should be public. All the people have the right to know exactly what the state is betting on. DiMasi, the skeptic in the past when it comes to judging gambling's promised riches, should remain a skeptic. When it comes to gambling, the people deserve at least one in the State House.
The speaker holds the key to giving the casino industry what it wants. He also holds the key to a new governor's ability to deliver on some his campaign promises.
That's one powerful hand. How he plays it will be a test of DiMasi's personal principle and political loyalties.
Joan Vennochi's e-mail address is vennochi@globe.com. 
