Monday, June 5, 2006

The 15 Percent Solution?

Chris Gabrieli survived his political near-death experience in Worcester, so the 15 percent guillotine didn't claim any victims in Saturday's voting at the Democratic Party convention.

Still, there was talk aplenty about whether the rule, which requires candidates to get 15 percent of the convention vote to earn a spot on the fall primary ballot, has outlived its usefulness.

Former Gov. Michael Dukakis, who co-chaired a commission on the rules that governed this convention, remains a staunch supporter. ``I am a great believer in it,'' said Dukakis, who noted that the 15 percent requirement helped give him a clean one-on-one primary rematch with Ed King in 1982.

Although Thomas P. O'Neill III, then the lieutenant governor, was also in the race, he dropped out after it became clear he wouldn't get 15 percent at the convention.

``I didn't want three people in the race for obvious reasons,'' said Dukakis. ``We ended up with what I wanted, which was a great rematch. Had there been three candidates, who knows what would have happened?''

Who indeed? But let's recall that O'Neill was the lieutenant governor at the time, which is to say, hardly a minor figure.
Dukakis also warned of what might happen without the 15 percent requirement.

``When we had the wide open primary system, we'd end up with primaries with six, seven, eight candidates,'' Dukakis said. ``And somebody with 19, 20 percent of the vote would win the primary, who was clearly not even the majority choice of the Democrats.''

But US Rep. Barney Frank saw it differently.

``I think it is a mistake,'' the Fourth District congressman said. ``I understand why they needed it so Michael [Dukakis] got a clean shot at Ed King in '82. But it has long since outlived its usefulness.''

The dynamic of campaigns has changed dramatically since the days when fields stayed split between a half dozen candidates to campaign's end, Frank noted.

``Modern information technology has transformed politics more than people think,'' Frank said. ``In primaries these days, unlike years ago, by a few weeks before the vote, people know pretty much the relative strength of the candidates, and they tend to realign themselves.... As somebody begins to go ahead, others begin to coalesce behind him or her.''

Score this one for the gentleman -- um, make that the cranky congressman -- from the Fourth District.

Posted by at 04:49 PM

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