Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Convention rewards

Every four years, there's a debate over just what the endorsement of the state Democratic Party convention is worth. Generally speaking, the answer has been: Not a whole heckuva lot.
But so far, the polling suggests that his convention victory has given Deval Patrick a decent boost.
In the weeks before the Worcester gathering, Patrick seemed either to be third in the race or tied for third. But two surveys since then have showed him with a lead. The latest is the State House News Poll, which was conducted June 28-30.
In a sample of Democratic primary voters, Patrick leads with 35 percent. Businessman Chris Gabrieli tallied 22 percent. Attorney General Thomas Reilly, meanwhile, was third with 19 percent.
At 193, the Democratic primary sample is small, which of course makes the margin of error large: plus or minus seven percent. And it's also true that the ad campaigns, which usually affect lightly committed voters, have yet to start. Still, the poll seems like fair evidence that Patrick's convention investment was worth the effort.
``I think the convention clearly gave him a bounce,'' says pollster Gerry Chervinsky. ``Reilly started as the frontrunner, Gabrieli came on with his ads, and now Patrick has come on because of the convention.''
So who makes the next big move? One question close political observers have been asking is this: Given that his personal fortune is his big advantage, why wasn't Gabrieli on the air in June?
Or, as Chervinsky puts it: ``What is he waiting for, with all the money he has and can spend?''

Posted by at 11:15 AM

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