Crunch time

Best Picture

There's always an early front-runner for the major awards, and this year is no exception: With reviews calling it a "historical event," "Mystic River" has pretty much locked up the best picture pole position. But hark! What light through yonder multiplex breaks? It's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," a movie that even your grandmother is hoping is brilliant so that Peter Jackson can finally be rewarded for his Herculean efforts.

With early raves pouring in, Peter Weir's fighting-ships epic "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" looks to be a gamble that has paid off, and Miramax is readying its big Christmas gun, "Cold Mountain," based on the Charles Frazier Civil War-era bestseller. Other

high and mighty hopefuls include Ed Zwick's period actioner "The Last Samurai" and Ron Howard's sagebrush thriller "The Missing," with "House of Sand and Fog" (Jennifer Connelly, Ben Kingsley, based on an Andre Dubus III novel) and "Girl With a Pearl Earring" (Scarlett Johansson, Colin Firth, based on the Tracy Chevalier novel) representing the classy-literature wing. The melodramatic jigsaw puzzle "21 Grams"? Too bizarre for best picture, but continue on for its chances in the acting categories. Two less heavy contenders: the romantic comedy "Something's Gotta Give," with Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton, and "Big Fish," directed by Tim Burton and starring Albert Finney, Ewan McGregor, and Jessica Lange.

Best Actor

From this standpoint, it looks to be Sean Penn's year -- but what happens if the actor's grueling turn in "Mystic River" goes head-to-head with his equally piercing performance in "21 Grams"? And isn't it about time the Academy showed Bill Murray ("Lost in Translation") some love? The big competition will likely come from Jude Law as a returning Civil War soldier in "Cold Mountain," but Viggo Mortensen in "Return of the King" could be a wild card -- is Aragorn a lead or a supporting role?

(He is the king, after all.) The Academy loves returning favorites, so Jack Nicholson ("Something's Gotta Give"), Russell Crowe ("Master and Commander"), and Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog") all have a shot at a nomination. Long shots, but for vastly different reasons: Tom Cruise in "The Last Samurai" (he could do Shakespeare standing on his head in a dress and Oscar voters wouldn't care) and Paul Giamatti in "American Splendor" (the movie's too small and weird).

Best Actress

From now till New Year's, it seems as if the first name on everybody's list will be Naomi Watts, so we'll make it the first on ours. In "21 Grams," she plays a grieving wife and mother who teams with a stranger to track down the man who killed her family. Less devastated but no less weepy and stressed out is Julia Roberts, playing art history professor to a class of Wellesley brats in "Mona Lisa Smile." Scarlett Johansson should be stressed out. Voters might be torn between her star-making "Lost in Translation" role and her even quieter part as a Vermeer muse in "Girl With a Pearl Earring."

Cate Blanchett might find herself in similar straits with voters potentially unsure about whether they prefer her as a driven, flirtatious journalist in

"Veronica Guerin" or a vengeful mother in "The Missing." Toni Collette plays an emotionally wrenched geologist who has an affair with an uptight businessman in "Japanese Story." Jennifer Connelly plays an emotionally wrenched housecleaner who loses her home in "House of Sand and Fog." And for the season's biggest curiosity, Charlize Theron plays emotionally wrenched lesbian prostitute serial killer Aileen Wuornos in "Monster." But if Oscar's feeling funny -- and he never ever is anymore -- there's Diane Keaton in "Something's Gotta Give," Helen Mirren and Julie Walters taking it all off in "Calendar Girls," and, perhaps, Jessica Alba as an aspiring rump-shaker in "Honey," the password being comedy and all.

Best Director

Logic would lead you to think a best picture nominee would have to be made by a best director. But though everybody in the Academy can throw in their two cents for best picture nominee (five times), only directors nominate directors, so anything goes. That's how David Lynch eked his way onto the list for 2001's "Mulholland Drive." This holiday season holds few Lynch-like surprises, but there is a single guarantee. Its name is Peter Jackson, whose "Return of the King" looks like a battle royal. Plus, the way to a director's heart is through the huge battle sequence, which is good news for Ed Zwick ("Glory") whose "The Last Samurai" has about three.

Of what has yet to be released in 2003, voters might also fancy Ron Howard's John Ford impersonation in "The Missing" or Anthony Minghella for turning another piece of lit ("Cold Mountain") into a widescreen romantic epic. But Howard won for "A Beautiful Mind" and Minghella for "The English Patient," so Oscar voters might turn to oft-omitted fellows like Tim Burton, whose "Big Fish" seems like flagrant Oscar bait, and Errol Morris, whose latest documentary "The Fog of War" is winning him some of his biggest attention and loudest acclaim. (He'd be the first nonfiction nominee.) Robert Altman has a small dance picture called "The Company." Maybe it's his moment, again. Or maybe it's time for Nancy Meyers, the commercial comedy writer-producer who directed "Something's Gotta Give."

Perhaps, if voters find "House of Sand and Fog" as powerful as the book, the directors' branch could single out first-timer Vadim Perelman. Or if "Mona Lisa Smile" is the four-hankie crowd-pleaser it's rumored to be, that might secure a spot for veteran Mike Newell. And never count out workhorse and seven-time nominee Norman Jewison, whose latest is a suspense film about the legacy of the Holocaust, "The Statement."

The token slot for a foreign-language flick could go to Canada's Denys Arcand, whose "The Barbarian Invasions," about a dying man and his estranged loved ones, is being hailed as a masterpiece. But the fawning over "21 Grams" almost guarantees that Mexico's Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu will take Arcand's spot. Oh wait, "21 Grams" is in English? Never mind. Arcand can stay.

Best Supporting Actor

The economy's up and so is the number of gentlemen looking to get into this five-man club. And these are just the dudes in movies that haven't opened yet. Ian McKellen could earn his second nomination playing the wizard Gandalf in "Return of the King." Ken Watanabe could get his first as the charismatic warrior in "The Last Samurai." In the same movie, cherubic Englishman Timothy Spall could finally land a spot, this time as a jolly Japanophile. "Cold Mountain" is teeming with potential nominees: Brendan Gleeson, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Donald Sutherland, Giovanni Ribisi, and Ray Winstone. (That's just the movie's upper supporting deck.)

There's also Djimon Hounsou as the artist/neighbor of "In America"; both Albert Finney as the dying southern raconteur in "Big Fish" and Ewan McGregor as Finney's young self; Benicio Del Toro as a born-again ex-con in "21 Grams"; James Franco, who plays the lover of ballerina Neve Campbell in "The Company"; from the same film, Malcolm McDowell as a crusty artistic director; and every hobbit and orc in the final "Lord of the Rings." (This means you, Elijah Wood. At last!) For completion's sake, it'd also be useful to mention Keanu Reeves in "Something's Gotta Give" as the youngest third of a Diane Keaton-Jack Nicholson love triangle. Whoa.

Best Supporting Actress

As usual, the category looks like a fire sale in Filene's Basement.

In this corner we have Laura Linney and Marcia Gay Harden duking it out with possible nominations for "Mystic River." In the opposing corner, there's Scarlett Johansson going against herself in "Lost in Translation" -- if Focus Features chooses to push in this category -- and a potential best actress nod for "Girl with a Pearl Earring." And in a third corner, there are the actresses in "Mona Lisa Smile" -- Kirsten Dunst, Julia Stiles, and Maggie Gyllenhaal -- all canceling one another out.

Holly Hunter's stressed-out mom in "Thirteen" and Patricia Clarkson's bereaved mom in "The Station Agent" have their fans, but buzz is building for Renee Zellweger in "Cold Mountain" and Jessica Lange in "Big Fish." Expect the least likely nominee to win.

Wesley Morris can be reached at wmorris@globe.com; Ty Burr can be reached at tburr@globe.com.