Finales face off as networks show signs of life
TV has a way of straining friendships. Matt Witmer, 19, will gather buddies in New Bedford tonight to watch the ''Lost" finale on a 45-inch plasma TV. But as hard as he tried, he couldn't get one particular friend to budge. ''Lost" is relegated to her
It's the sort of modern dilemma that makes TV executives salivate: a showdown between finales of two of this season's most buzz-worthy hits. From 8 to 10 tonight, Fox's ''American Idol" will crown a fourth winner, Southern rocker Bo Bice or country crooner Carrie Underwood. At the same time on ABC, the castaways on ''Lost" are promised clues about what landed them on their deadly island. And it's a cliffhanger, of course.
But regardless of who wins the ratings game, TV observers say, the winner is network television. Thanks in large part to juggernauts like ''Idol" and surprise hits like ''Lost," networks have managed this year to stabilize a decade's worth of declining ratings, to combat a reputation for creative drought, to prove their -- occasional -- clout in a fragmented entertainment landscape.
''Perhaps the eulogies for network television may have been a bit premature," said Robert Thompson, director for the Center for the Study of Popular Television at Syracuse University. ''I think the old network broad still has a few tricks up her sleeve."
In fact, network television's muted success stands in contrast to troubles in the movie industry, where revenues are in a downturn. After a one-year uptick, pop music sales are flagging as well.
And while season finales don't tend to reach the stratospheric ratings of a Super Bowl -- which drew 86 million viewers this year -- some of the networks' bright spots have drawn respectable highs, particularly at the end of May's sweeps period. The series finale of CBS's ''Everybody Loves Raymond" and the season finales of ABC's ''Desperate Housewives" and CBS's ''CSI" drew more than 30 million viewers apiece, nearly twice as much as series such as ''CSI" draw each week.
But it's not just a matter of numbers, network executives say. If they work right, programming battles like tonight's ''Lost"/''Idol" duel will deliver enough hype to promote network TV itself.
''That's what network television should be doing. It should be pitting big events against each other," said Preston Beckman, executive vice president for strategic programming, planning, and research at Fox. ''Will they get bruised and bloodied? Probably. Will we get bruised and bloodied? Probably. Network television benefits when viewers feel that the major events are still on network television."
When it comes to tonight's ratings war, industry watchers give the edge to ''Idol," a phenomenon that cuts across demographic groups, that has inspired betting lines and college courses, and that has prompted what perhaps was the sincerest form of envy: a ratings-grab exposé on ABC's ''Primetime Live" this month.
But ''Lost" will show respectably, they predict, because of its loyal fan base; some are devoted to the point of obsession to the characters, suspense, and metaphysics. Witmer, a Bristol Community College student, helps to moderate an unofficial ''Lost" fansite, and he runs a website of his own -- it's at thenumbers.greatestjournal.com, and it tracks the mystical numbers that recur throughout the episodes. (He's gone so far as to count ax strokes and CPR chest-blows.)
It's a tribute, Thompson said, to the show's brand of risk-taking scripted TV, which the networks haven't always been known for producing. In recent years, he said, much of the on-air innovation came from cable channels: cult hits like Bravo's ''Queer Eye for the Straight Guy," and HBO dramas that capitalize on cable's wider latitude for R-rated fare.
But the strength of ''Lost"-- its layered plotlines and complex interactions -- limited its audience, Thompson said; to follow it, viewers had to make a season-long commitment.
''You not only watch it, you've got to have a relationship with it," he said. ''You've got to watch every episode. They get mad at you if you don't call them every week."
Still, enough people watched to make ''Lost" the 16th-most-watched network show this season, one of three new hit dramas -- along with ''Desperate Housewives" and ''Grey's Anatomy" -- that gave the sagging ABC a sudden reputation for innovation. Another sure sign of its power: seven new shows in the networks' fall lineup will feature creepy supernatural doings.
If any of them re-create what ''Lost" has done, they could represent the future of network TV, said Rich Hanley, a communications professor at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut. Cable's channels are well-placed to produce quick-turnaround shows on the cheap, Hanley said. ''Network TV is going to become the movies of the future," he said: distinguished by high production values, strong casts, and appointment viewing.
''It will be the type of show people want to watch because they'll want to talk about it with their friends and neighbors," Hanley said. And events like that, he said, can transcend even TiVo.
''There is still something magical," he said, ''about a show appearing at the same time everywhere, and people on the same page talking about it."
