Mary J. Blige? Probably. Gnarls Barkley? Maybe. James Blunt? That would be crazy.

At the 49th annual Grammy Awards, airing Sunday at 8 p.m. on CBS, the Police will take the stage for the first time since their 1986 breakup, one lucky contest winner will sing a duet with Justin Timberlake, and Mary J. Blige will vie for a total of eight awards. But who will bring home the trophies? The Globe's pop music critics, Joan Anderman and Sarah Rodman, sat down to handicap the race in seven key categories (and to share their mutual dislike of James Blunt). Following are excerpts from their conversation.

Record of the year

Nominees: "Be Without You," Mary J. Blige; "You're Beautiful," James Blunt; "Not Ready to Make Nice," Dixie Chicks; "Crazy," Gnarls Barkley; "Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae

Sarah Rodman: I think that "Crazy" is going to win because it was the most-played record of the year. This is the award that goes to the producer and the recording engineer, and certainly this is one that had a different sound and that a lot of people responded to. And I think of that group of songs it should win, too.

Joan Anderman: You know what, I agree with you. I think it should win. But I think it won't win. Everybody loved that song, but Mary J. Blige is the sweetheart, and they're going to give her this vote just for sentimental reasons.

Rodman: If she does win that one, that's one of the big ones she's nominated for, so that'll be the one she gets since she's not nominated for album of the year and she has the most nominations.

Anderman: Exactly. I think she's going to get record of the year because she's not nominated for album of the year. If James Blunt gets it for "You're Beautiful," I may quit.

Rodman: Amen.

Anderman: That's all there is to it.

Album of the year

Nominees: "Taking the Long Way," Dixie Chicks; "St. Elsewhere," Gnarls Barkley; "Continuum," John Mayer; "Stadium Arcadium," Red Hot Chili Peppers; "FutureSex/LoveSounds," Justin Timberlake

Anderman: This is going to the Red Hot Chili Peppers. They are elder statesmen, believe it or not -- they don't behave like elder statesmen. "Stadium Arcadium" sold a gazillion copies. But as much as I like the Red Hot Chili Peppers, I don't think it was a great album. My favorite: "Taking the Long Way," the Dixie Chicks.

Rodman: I agree.

Anderman: They're never going to get it, though.

Rodman: I actually think the Dixie Chicks are going to win this award because this is an opportunity for the Recording Academy to show how much cooler they are than the country music community by saying we stand behind you, especially now that the tide has turned the Dixie Chicks' way , politically speaking. It's also a way to reward Rick Rubin -- who's had a great year -- who also produced the Chili Peppers and worked on the Justin Timberlake record.

Anderman: Well, you know what? I think you're dreaming.

Rodman: I like dreaming, as someone once said. And I'm sure Justin Timberlake thinks he's going to win, but he's not.

Anderman: Justin's not gonna win anything. And as someone who attended his concert this past week, he doesn't deserve to win.

Rodman: Oof!

Song of the year

Nominees: "Be Without You," Mary J. Blige; "Jesus, Take the Wheel," Carrie Underwood; "Not Ready to Make Nice," Dixie Chicks; "Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae; "You're Beautiful," James Blunt

Rodman: The less said about James Blunt the better. He will not be winning this award.

Anderman: Ohhh, I don't know. I think this is the one that might go to him. They tend to give this award to the big sellers for some reason. Oddly enough, since this should be an artistry award.

Rodman: See, this is where I think Mary J. Blige is going to win. People love this song, and if they give the Dixie Chicks the other award, they've got to give her something. Because she's going in with eight nominations, and I don't think she's going out with eight trophies.

Anderman: Do you think it's a great song, though? Is this the songwriter honor? I mean, does it deserve that?

Rodman: I actually do think it's a pretty great song, compared with the others in the category, with the exception of the Dixie Chicks', which I love and don't think is going to win.

Anderman: At the risk of sabotaging my credibility as a critic, I'm going to say that I love "Put Your Records On." It's very middle of the road; I know it's not cutting edge, it's not hip, it's not any of those things, but it's a terrific song. I think "Put Your Records On" should win. And you know what I think will win? "You're Beautiful." I'm so sorry.

Rodman: We're very, very sorry.

Best new artist

Nominees: James Blunt, Chris Brown, Imogen Heap, Corinne Bailey Rae, Carrie Underwood

Rodman: This is Carrie Underwood in a walk.

Anderman: I agree. Every year there's a Grammy category with such a misguided entrant, and this year it's Imogen Heap. I think her first record came out what, six or seven years ago? It reminds me of Jethro Tull winning in the heavy metal category.

Rodman: Or when Shelby Lynne got nominated in this category a few years ago when she was on her sixth record.

Anderman: Exactly. This is going to Carrie Underwood. It will and it should.

Rodman: Of that group of people, she made the best record and she's got the best voice.

Anderman: I love it when we agree, Sarah.

Rodman: It's so beautiful.

Best female popvocal performance

Nominees: "Ain't No Other Man," Christina Aguilera; "Unwritten," Natasha Bedingfield; "You Can Close Your Eyes," Sheryl Crow; "Stupid Girls," Pink; "Black Horse and the Cherry Tree," KT Tunstall

Anderman: It should go to "Stupid Girls." I love Pink. It's a great song. It's smart, it's funny, it's tough . . . I could go on. But it will go to Natasha Bedingfield.

Rodman: It should go to "Ain't No Other Man." And I think it will. Christina Aguilera's only got two nominations this year. She made this very ambitious album that got pretty decent reviews and has sold fairly well, and I think this is going to be their opportunity to congratulate someone who won best new artist in the past on branching out and doing something a little bit different. And as much as Sheryl Crow is one of my favorite artists and KT had a really good breakthrough year, I think Christina will and deserves to win.

Anderman: I'm sticking with Natasha.

Rodman: You know what's interesting about that category? Those songs were big "American Idol" songs last year. Ayla Brown sang "Unwritten" the night before she got kicked off the show, and Katharine McPhee took it all the way to the final two with "Black Horse and the Cherry Tree." So perhaps "American Idol" is giving both those songs a boost.

Best alternative music album

Nominees: "Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not," Arctic Monkeys; "At War With the Mystics," the Flaming Lips; "St. Elsewhere," Gnarls Barkley; "Show Your Bones," Yeah Yeah Yeahs; "The Eraser," Thom Yorke

Rodman: I know which one you want to win.

Anderman: How do you know?

Rodman: It's "The Eraser."

Anderman: That's absolutely incorrect. I think the Arctic Monkeys should win. But I think Gnarls Barkley will win. What do you think?

Rodman: I want the Arctic Monkeys to win, as well. And actually, I think the Arctic Monkeys will win. This is another opportunity for the Recording Academy to show how cool it is . . .

Anderman: But it isn't cool!

Rodman: It shows itself cool in categories that don't ever get presented on television and ones that people don't hear about.

Anderman: You know, I just don't think they get it. I think they think Gnarls Barkley is alternative -- when it couldn't be more mainstream. And I think this is where they're going to reward those sales.

Rodman: I'm sticking with the Arctic Monkeys.

Anderman: I hope so.

Rodman: I hope so too. We'll see.

Best rap album

Nominees: "Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor," Lupe Fiasco; "Release Therapy," Ludacris; "In My Mind," Pharrell; "Game Theory," the Roots; "King," T.I.

Rodman: That's a hard category. Those are almost all really good records. My preference would be for the Roots to win. It's the best album they've ever made, which is saying a lot because they're such a unique and interesting hip-hop group. It's actually a pretty hip category. I think they did a good job splitting it between people like T.I., who's a big seller; Ludacris, who's very popular; and then people like Lupe and the Roots who have more indie credibility. I think Ludacris is going to win -- it's going to be a name recognition issue.

Anderman: For some reason I think it's going to go to T.I.

Rodman: Of the people on the list, he sold the most records, and if that's the benchmark that they're using. . . . But definitely Ludacris has got the best name recognition. I actually think, reading over the whole list, that this year's nominations are not horrible. There are a lot of predictable things, people like Sheryl Crow getting nominations because they always have, but there's some new blood in there too.

Anderman: All things considered, it's a pretty strong year.