John Barry on swine flu: “This is clearly a serious disease, even though the death total ... does not look like it will approach the enormous numbers people have been afraid of.’’
(Chris Greenberg/Getty Images/File 2005)
JOHN BARRY | G Force
The ‘Great flu’ vs. today’s
John Barry on swine flu: “This is clearly a serious disease, even though the death total ... does not look like it will approach the enormous numbers people have been afraid of.’’
(Chris Greenberg/Getty Images/File 2005)
Until John Barry’s spellbinding tome emerged in 2004, the influenza pandemic of 1918 was largely a footnote in the annals of sprawling human tragedies. Which, in retrospect, is hard to believe. The viral tsunami that swept the planet killed at least 50 million and, potentially, twice that. Other books had chronicled the crisis, but it was Barry’s, “The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History,’’ that resonated most with readers and policy makers. Now, Barry is living through the swine flu pandemic of 2009, which he will discuss today at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. (The 2 p.m. event is open to the public in the EG&G Education Center, 50 Vassar St., Cambridge, in Grier Room B.) We spoke with Barry by phone.
STEPHEN SMITH
Q. What’s similar and what’s different about the two pandemics?
A. The pattern in terms of spread seems to be like not only 1918 but pandemics in 1889, 1957, where there were sputters of intermittent outbreaks, sort of like you turn an engine over and it coughs, coughs, coughs before it catches fire. In 1918, there were hints all through the spring it could be something really nasty. But so far this year, we’ve not seen clusters where a lot of people in the same area have suffered severe illness or death.
Q. The 1918 pandemic caused widespread death and misery. Swine flu has proved far less lethal. How will this affect people’s view of the threat presented by pandemics?
A. Will there be this sense there was overkill and then complacency? Yeah, that is a problem. When government officials and health officials talk to the public, they need to indicate how much uncertainty there is about this. We don’t know whether this is a long war or a short war. We don’t know whether we’re going to have a permanently mild new virus - although if you’re dying it’s not so mild. This seems to be sort of like a barbell with nothing in between. The overwhelming proportion of cases are very mild, but at the other end of the barbell you have cases that are far more virulent than seasonal flu. You have people dying from viral pneumonias who never die of viral pneumonias during seasonal flu. In seasonal flu, it’s the elderly who are already ill who die. It sort of pushes them over the edge. This is entirely different.
Q. Could the swine flu virus evolve into something more lethal?
A. No one I know expects that to happen, but I think everyone recognizes it’s possible. The other possibility is that it reassorts with another virus, which is a concern, obviously. This is clearly a serious disease even though the death total at this point does not look like it will approach the enormous numbers people have been afraid of.
Q. What are you doing to protect your health?
A. While I wash my hands and follow cough etiquette, when I get on an airplane, do I wear a mask? No, I don’t. Do I have antiviral medications? I do. Will I take them if I’m sick? I will. Will I get vaccinated when it’s available? Yes, I will.
Interview has been condensed and edited. 
© Copyright 2009 Globe Newspaper Company.
