SAN FRANCISCO - About 40 years of health improvements from declining numbers of smokers may be undermined because too many US adults are obese, researchers said.
Under one scenario of obesity and smoking trends, by 2020 the future life expectancy of a typical 18-year-old would be shortened 8 months, according to a study published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The number of adults who were obese more than doubled in 25 years to 72 million people, or 34 percent of US adults, in 2006, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Public-health programs and rising cigarette taxes reduced smoking rates to 21 percent in 2008 from 37 percent in 1970, according to the CDC.
Obesity-related medical costs reached $147 billion in 2008, or about 10 percent of US medical spending, according to a CDC study published July 27. Other studies have found the obesity epidemic threatens efforts to reduce deaths from heart disease and breast cancer.
The analysis found obesity accounts for 5 percent to 15 percent of US deaths each year, while smoking is tied to 18 percent of deaths. Failing to change continuing increases in obesity could erode the steady gains in health seen in recent decades.
Researchers from Harvard University, the University of Michigan, and the economic research bureau used data from three health surveys to forecast life expectancy through 2020. Obesity was defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or greater, or about 192 pounds for a person who is 5 feet 7 inches tall.
