Senate’s chief budget writer increases deficit estimates

Rising welfare and homeless shelter caseloads are further burdening the budget, even as the state has qualified for $250 million in federal aid for school programs and received $450 million in other federal aid, said Senate Ways and Means chairman Steven C. Panagiotakos.

House Ways and Means chairman Charles A. Murphy agreed, saying, “Suffice it to say, there are deficiencies out there that were unanticipated.’’

Lawmakers were reluctant to estimate an overall deficit in the current spending blueprint, which is less than two months old.

“It’s difficult to say what the total deficiency is,’’ Murphy said.

With federal reimbursements, the potential $600 million hole in the roughly $10 billion Medicaid budget could mean a budget loss of about $240 million, chewing up much of the $450 million in Federal Medical Assistance Percentages authorized in Washington last month, Panagiotakos said.

Additionally, the state is trying to balance its books for the fiscal year that ended June 30. Panagiotakos said he hoped to address both fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011 shortfalls in one spending bill by Sept. 19.

“We’re trying to do both in one vehicle,’’ he said.

Murphy agreed and said a second round of fiscal 2011 supplemental spending would probably emerge in several months.

New estimates show a $20 million gap in homeless shelter emergency assistance accounts and a $5 million shortfall for parks and beaches under the Department of Conservation and Recreation.

Without that funding, said Panagiotakos, the state would have to close parks and delay the opening of pools and beaches next summer.

Department officials said it was too early to speculate whether next summer’s services would be affected by the budget.

“Next year’s schedule of openings hasn’t been set yet,’’ DCR spokeswoman Catherine Williams said in an e-mail. “We are in the process now of finalizing our spending plans for the year. DCR is reviewing its existing and projected resources while exploring ways to continue to provide critical programs and services in this challenging fiscal environment.’’

With the $250 million in Race to the Top funds the state is slated to receive over the next two years for kindergarten through high school, Panagiotakos said the state should transfer other federal aid to higher education. The state had earlier allocated $76 million from the federal funding for elementary and secondary schools.

“I think it’s prudent that we take a good portion of that $76 million and put it back into higher education,’’ Panagiotakos said.

Wary of a possible steep drop in federal aid in fiscal 2012, budget writers have been hopeful that the influx of money from Washington over the last month could be used to replenish the state’s reserve account, which was once above $2 billion, but will sink to $556 million by the end of fiscal 2011. The state could be facing a budget deficit of $2 billion in fiscal 2012.

Panagiotakos said the escalating demands on federal money made it unclear how much money can be diverted to savings. Some of the cash will go to spending programs that were cut earlier this year. Even then, budget writers were banking on close to $700 million, instead of the $450 million ultimately approved.

That pool of cash already faces an array of other demands. For instance, when the additional Medicaid money was in doubt, Patrick canceled the Legislature’s appropriations of $56,250 for radiological emergency response, $170,517 for a prison industries and farm program, and $64,600 for a foster care and adoption fee waiver.

“On top of that, we have these other newly projected shortfalls,’’ Panagiotakos said.

July’s state tax revenues grew 3 percent from the year before, which Patrick officials said reflected economic growth.

“The spending is only going to get worse, not better, in terms of the underfunding,’’ said Michael Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. “The caseloads, the pressure’s obviously only growing, not lessening.’’

Last week, Patrick downplayed the problems posed by the mounting budget pressure. “Every year with the programs that depend on caseload, every year, there is uncertainty,’’ Patrick said, “and with the economy being what it is, there’s been . . . even more pressure than usual on Medicaid and other services for people who are in need. But we have successfully managed those uncertainties for each of the last four years, and we will continue to do so.’’

Aides said the administration planned to file a supplemental budget soon.