5th race gets national analysis

Largely because of last week's poll indicated a closer-than-expected race in the making, the Fifth Congressional District race has started to gain some out-of-state chatter.

Here's the round-up:

W. James Antle III in conservative magazine The American Spectator: "While Republicans are reeling in former strongholds like Virginia and New Hampshire, the Grand Old Party hopes for a pickup in the bluest of states: Massachusetts, the home of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Michael Dukakis...The elements for a Republican upset -- an open seat, a somewhat divided Democratic Party after a contentious primary, a large number of independents, a slightly higher level of GOP registration than most Bay State districts, and no presidential or gubernatorial coattails for Tsongas to grab -- may be there, but there are good reasons to be skeptical."

David Weigel, at the libertarian political journal Reason Magazine: "An Ogonowksi victory isn't likely, but it's not impossible, and it would dramatically change the political debate. A proud pro-war Republican will have won by attacking both Bush and the congressional Democrats. Independents will have swung back to the GOP. The Democratic aura of inevitability would be battered, maybe enough to perk up Republican fundraising and keep one or two from retiring. No Republican has flipped a Democratic seat in a special election since Virginia's Michael Randy Forbes in 2001, and no Republican has flipped a seat in New England since Rob Simmons won Connecticut's second district (New London, Norwich) in 2000."

Aaron Blake at the DC-based newspaper The Hill: "A new poll suggests a Republican congressman from Massachusetts is a real possibility."