Officials report flu outbreak on decline
The outbreak of flu that swept Massachusetts and most of the country last month has largely dissipated, say public health officials, as hospitals such as Massachusetts General in Boston report a steep drop in new cases since early January.
The death of an 18-year-old Worcester State College student from the flu last month underscored fears that this year's flu could be particularly deadly, triggering enormous public demand for flu vaccines. But by the last week of December, laboratories across the country that report to the Centers for Disease Control were seeing a rapid decline in the number of new cases.
Maine and New Hampshire lowered their flu alert level last week, and Massachusetts officials expect to follow suit if current trends continue. Though statewide numbers in Massachusetts are uncertain, flu cases confirmed at the state laboratory fell from a high of 24 cases in the week after Christmas to six last week. In the same period, Mass. General reported a drop from 100 cases of the flu to just five.
"I think the holidays kind of short-circuited a lot of the outbreak," said Alfred DeMaria, state director of infectious disease control. With schools closed and many people taking vacation time, he said, fewer healthy people were exposed to the flu, and the illness "kind of burned out in families."
Massachusetts reported its first flu cases on Dec. 4, after the disease was already widespread in 10 states, making it the earliest flu season nationally since 1976-77. Just as worrisome, the dominant strain of flu killed several children in Colorado, raising fears that the young were especially vulnerable.
But by Jan. 8 the CDC reported that the outbreak was starting to wane in many states, including Massachusetts. So far, CDC officials estimate that 111 children have died from the flu nationwide since last October, though infectious disease specialists are still debating whether that number is unusually high.
The drop in reported flu cases has given the state time to replenish depleted vaccine stocks, including 9,000 new doses imported from Britain. But public interest in flu shots has waned, say doctors and pharmacists.
For example, 60 people lined up for the flu clinic at the Heights Pharmacy in Needham last month, hoping to get a new form of the flu vaccine that is given as a nasal mist. Now, the interest has fizzled. said pharmacist Elyce Tabachnick. "We're not even giving them any more. People aren't asking about it," she said.
This year's vaccine had questionable effectiveness against the influenza A strain that dominated in December, CDC officials say, largely because it was a new and unexpected form of the flu. However, federal and state health officials continue to urge people, especially the elderly and children, to get the shots since they will repel other flu strains.
The influenza A strain of December is unlikely to return this winter, but infectious disease specialists say there is still time until the end of flu season in April for another outbreak, perhaps of influenza B, to emerge.
"We're not done with the flu season yet. We hope no other strain will emerge," said Dr. David Hooper, chief of Mass. General's infection control unit.
Even if the flu does not return this winter, infectious disease specialists say the winter of 2003-04 will be remembered as the biggest flu outbreak in a decade. Mass. General has treated 700 cases of the flu this year, compared to just 90 cases each in the last two years, Hooper said.
Scott Allen can be reached at allen@globe.com.
