Region struggles on greenhouse emissions goals

It was one of North America's most ambitious goals in the battle against global warming: Three years ago, New England and Eastern Canada pledged to slice their greenhouse gas emissions 12 percent by 2010.

Now, a third of the way into the effort, carbon dioxide emissions have not decreased in the region and, in fact, appear to be growing, in part because people are driving more and using bigger, less fuel-efficient vehicles that emit more of the gas.

Yet even the region's fiercest environmental critics say that New England is making a strong effort, doing everything from capping power plant pollutants to installing more energy-efficient traffic lights.

The trouble, they say, is that many of the attempts are bumping into a federal government that is deeply reluctant to reduce these gases. Putting in place never-before-tried policies, such as trading clean air credits, is immensely complicated.

"We've all been astounded how complex moving ahead is," said Kenneth Colburn, executive director of the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, a regional nonprofit association of air quality agencies. He remains optimistic, however, that the goal will be met, or nearly met. "Think of it as Dwight Eisenhower planning D-Day. It's brand new. It's never been done. There is not cooperation" from the federal government.

New England is at odds with the federal government's policies on carbon dioxide, the main culprit in global warming. Frustrated at the Bush administration's unwillingness to treat the gas as a pollutant, environmental groups, three cities, and 12 states including Massachusetts sued the US Environmental Protection Agency in October for failing to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

The administration also has resisted calls to set stricter carbon dioxide limits for vehicles and power plants. Some New England states are also watching a California law that would directly limit carbon dioxide exhaust from vehicles. But it may be challenged by automakers, on the grounds that California is straying into regulating fuel economy, which is the federal government's prerogative.

The Bush administration has consistently rejected environmentalists' calls to strictly reduce carbon dioxide and other gases that scientists say contribute to global warming, according to critics. Three years ago, the administration refused to sign an international treaty called the Kyoto Protocol promising to limit greenhouse gases in many countries.

Federal policy makers have said more study is needed and have questioned how much human activity contributes to warming. On average, the earth's temperatures have warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last 100 years, and scientists say that in some areas of New England the warming has been even greater.

Global warming presents a particular challenge to the old adage "Think globally and act locally." As fossil fuels are burned in power plants and cars, they release thousands of tons of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere. These gases hover over the earth, trapping rising heat and radiating it back down again as glass does in a greenhouse. But it turns out that even New England, which environmentalists say contributes significantly to global warming, may not be able to meet its lofty goals to reduce emissions without some US leadership.

Still, in a region that heavily depends on tourism, New England governors and Canadian premiers have set out to prevent what scientists warn could be fewer snow-covered ski slopes, duller autumn foliage, and more flooding from rising seas brought on by warming. In 2001, the group pledged to reduce greenhouse gas pollution to 1990 levels by 2010 and to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The group's long-term goals are even greater.

But the New England Climate Coalition, a broad-based group of environmentalists, clergy, and municipal groups, said federal energy use projections could mean a 13 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 over 2000 levels. The coalition issued a report this fall that notes New England is on target to meet less than a one-third of its 2010 pollution goals.

Frank Gorke, an energy advocate with the Massachusetts Public Interest Research Group who coordinated the report, said New England states are rightly plucking "the low hanging fruit" for energy policies. But if the goals are to be met, "We need to be much more aggressive."

Starting today, New England and Canadian scientists and policy makers will meet at Suffolk University Law School to discuss how the region needs to adapt to rising seas and other predicted effects of global warming.

Many environmentalists agree that New England states have taken ground-breaking steps to limit greenhouse gases. Massachusetts was the first state to pledge to reduce carbon dioxide from the state's dirtiest power plants, by approximately 10 percent by about 2008. The state now requires 1 percent of all electricity to come from renewable means, such as solar or wind, and is increasing that amount each year.

Maine, meanwhile, put the 2010 goal into law last year, and just last week Connecticut Governor John G. Rowland adopted measures to reduce greenhouse gases. At the same time, New England is part of a larger regional effort started by New York to allow power plants to buy and sell carbon-dioxide credits. The credits would allow a power plant to compensate for some of its greenhouse gases by purchasing a credit created by someone else's reduction of the gases.

Yet, most of New England's programs have yet to begin and some that have, such as the requirement that Massachusetts agencies buy the most energy efficient vehicle for the job it's doing, may be largely symbolic, some environmentalists say. Massachusetts has also not yet released a climate action plan that environmentalists say was promised by the end of last year. Meanwhile, Maine's law was softer than an original version that required more specific and timely reductions in gases, environmentalists say. And the rules for the credit purchasing scheme are still being hashed out.

"Formulating these credit schemes is an incredibly complex process," said Seth Kaplan of the Conservation Law Foundation.

New England environmental officials say they know they can't single-handedly stop global warming. Instead, they see their efforts as setting a national model for limiting greenhouse gases.

"If the region were a country, we'd be the 12th largest emitter of greenhouse gas in the world," said Cindy Luppi of Clean Water Action, part of the New England Climate Coalition. "Showing a region this large can make reductions sends a critically important message out to the country and the world."

Beth Daley can be reached at bdaley@globe.com.