State population is going gray
Kingston's first development catering to an over-55 crowd, Rowell Estates, is a sign of things to come as the area's population ages, according to Planning Board chairman Glenn Coppelman.
"Kingston is not alone," said Coppelman. "East Kingston has at least two fairly large developments for people 55 and over that are built or under construction. And in other towns around here, you'll find a similar trend because the market is there."
More housing developments for older people are just one result of the state's shifting population, planners say.
"The catch is that land that goes into these elder housing developments won't go for single-family residential development for people with children," said Coppelman. "It's an interesting twist in that some towns are actually encouraging the 55 and older crowd because they don't want the children. They don't want the tax burden."
Fewer schoolchildren in New Hampshire and an increase in senior citizens will have implications for everything from affordable housing and public schools to health care and public transportation, according to planners and demographers looking at census figures released March 10.
Tom Duffy, senior planner at the New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning, said the demographic shift in the state reflects the aging of the baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964, and their children as they leave home.
New Hampshire's population grew by 4.2 percent, or 53,000, from 2000 to 2003, to nearly 1.3 million. This increase compares with a 3.3 percent increase nationwide.
But the number of New Hampshire children under age 5 dropped by 2,500, or by 3 percent, in that time, compared with a 3 percent increase nationwide, according to Duffy.
There were 6,400 fewer children ages 5 to 13 in 2003 than in 2000, a 3.9 percent drop compared with a less than 1 percent drop nationwide. By comparison, Vermont saw a 9.6 percent drop in children ages 5 to 13 in 2003, Maine a 7.5 percent drop, Connecticut a 1.8 percent drop, Massachusetts a 3.6 percent drop, and Rhode Island a 3.2 percent drop, Duffy said.
The number of 14- to 17-year-olds in New Hampshire grew by 5,500, or 7.8 percent, during the same three years. The fastest-growing age group in the state was the 18- to 24-year-olds. New Hampshire was third in the nation for growth of residents 18 to 24, gaining 16,000 or 15.6 percent. In Maine, the same group increased by 16.2 percent, Vermont by 12.9 percent, Rhode Island by 7.2 percent, Massachusetts by 3 percent, and Connecticut by 11.6 percent, said Duffy.
"Part of this [increase in the 18 to 24 group] is what we call the echo generation, the children of the baby boom born from 1977 to 1992," said Duffy.
New Hampshire was 18th nationally in growth for groups over 65 and 85 during the same period. The over-85 group was the second-fastest-growing group in the state, up 13 percent, or by 2,400, since 2000.
The over-65 group increased by 4.2 percent. Vermont saw a 3.4 increase in this age group, Maine a 2.7 gain, Connecticut a 0.1 percent increase, Rhode Island a decline of 1.1 percent, and Massachusetts a 0.4 drop, reflecting what Duffy sees as a "North-South New England divide."
Duffy speculated that some of New Hampshire's elderly population growth is due to people moving from southern New England.
"We know that a very large plurality of in-migrants to New Hampshire are from Massachusetts, and looking at that age group is certainly part of that," said Duffy.
"For those 65 and older, you have a slight decline in Mass., and in New Hampshire that 4.2 percent, which is pretty strong."
Duffy said the drop in schoolchildren will have implications for the public schools.
For example, Duffy said first-grade enrollment has been declining across the state since 1998. In the fall of 2002, state data showed 16,200 first-graders, compared with 18,200 first-graders in the fall of 1999, a trend that will eventually ease pressure on the schools, Duffy said.
Peter Francese of Exeter, a demographics consultant, said the population shift spells trouble for the state as younger workers priced out of the housing market leave the state, and tax-averse senior citizens move in. "Reading between the lines. . . . I'd suggest that a very large proportion of those 18- to 24-year-olds will leave the state because of a lack of affordable housing," said Francese. "And the fact that the elderly are growing so fast and will continue to grow very rapidly in the future suggests diminishing support for public education.
"Anybody who thinks a very slight change in schoolchildren will save millions of dollars in education costs is dreaming because everybody wants to pay less taxes," Francese said.
"A much bigger connection in my view is that the almost complete lack of affordable housing in relation to job opportunities means most young people will leave the state. The state is getting older, and this continual aging of the population without a refreshment of young people staying here and raising families presages a long, slow economic decline for the state."
Duffy said the increase in older people raises "all kinds of public transportation and health care issues."
"Usually, the younger generation takes care of the older one," he said. "In this case it's the X generation, between the boomers and the echo generation, and they're smaller. So there's going to be an awful lot of pressure on health care workers. You've got a smaller generation taking care of a very large older generation, and there's already a shortage of nurses and people working in nursing homes. It's a double demographic whammy."
