Charter schools could hit ceiling

Charter schools could become victims of growth and the laws that created them, the state education commissioner said yesterday.

Surging enrollments, along with a state law requiring that some charters be granted in low-performing districts, could limit the number of new schools approved next year, education officials said.

Education officials said two factors are at work: An increasing number of districts are at or near the limit of public school funds they can divert to charter schools, because of the popularity of school choice. In addition, the state is required annually to approve three new charters in struggling districts across the state.

"It's going to be very difficult to see a pool of applicants next year," Commissioner David P. Driscoll said after yesterday's state Board of Education meeting in Malden. "It is really going to narrow the field. I won't say it's going to narrow it to zero, but that is a possibility in the upcoming year."

Of the state's 372 districts, 152 are bumping up against their charter enrollment cap, according to Education Department statistics. State law stipulates that a maximum of 9 percent of a district's state and local funds can be channeled into charter schools. Boston and other urban districts are nearing their caps, and Cambridge is getting close, Driscoll said. The state Education Department announced earlier this school year that it would not consider charter proposals that seek to serve Boston students.

State figures project that 4,550 Boston students could enroll in charter schools next school year. Charter schools generally range in size between 200 and 400 students.

The Massachusetts Charter School Association disputed Driscoll's conclusions.

"Our analysis shows that there is still plenty of room for charter schools in most of the major school districts in the Commonwealth, all of which fall below the statewide average in MCAS," said Marc Kenen, the association's executive director.

Kenen said his preliminary analysis shows that many cities could still accommodate charters, including Springfield, Worcester, Fall River, New Bedford, Pittsfield, Brockton, Chicopee, Fitchburg, Lowell, and Revere. He said the major districts that have reached a cap are Boston, Cambridge, and Malden, based on current charter schools and new ones that are slated to open; Lawrence and Somerville are close.

An increase in charter proposals for suburban districts could bump up against a stipulation that became an issue last month when the board was considering granting new charters.

The state board chairman, James Peyser, said the board is required to grant three charters yearly in districts where students are performing below average on MCAS tests. Lawmakers inserted the provision four years ago when they amended the charter school law, but it had not been an issue in the past, with ample applications to consider. Most of the applications proposed serving low-performing school districts.

The board is not receiving as many proposals as before, yet it still must make sure that three of the new charter schools it approves serve students in low-performing districts.

"It's another one of the restrictions that's beginning to close in on the movement," Peyser said. "There's a smaller and smaller universe where you can locate charter schools."

Peyser ordered education officials to report next month which districts could still support charters.

What might relieve the situation is if the Legislature adopted Governor Mitt Romney's proposal to lift a number of caps on charter schools, including enrollment limits. But the idea has minimal support, legislators said.

At the same time, a proposed moratorium on new charter schools is gaining steam, said Representative Thomas J. O'Brien, Democrat of Kingston. That proposal calls for halting approval of additional charter schools until the state reconsiders the formula that funds charters. Now, school districts lose several thousand dollars for each student who chooses to attend a charter.

Also yesterday, Driscoll announced that the state's school systems are slated to lose an estimated $27 million in federal Title I grants next year. The current amount of $260 million pays for reading and math programs in school systems with poor children. Jim Manley, spokesman for Senator Edward M. Kennedy, said Kennedy and other senators are petitioning US Secretary of Education Rod Paige to review the calculations, based on the 2000 census, and to restore the money.

Suzanne Sataline can be reached at sataline@globe.com.