Unenrolled, but not uninterested

SHREWSBURY -- On his 18th birthday this month, Shrewsbury resident Kyle Warren went to Town Hall with a friend to register to vote. He didn't know it at the time, but by checking the ''unenrolled" box, he became part of a trend that is particularly striking in this fast-growing town.

Between 1982 and 2002, the percentage of voters in suburban Boston who registered as Democrats dropped markedly, with independent, or ''unenrolled," voters, taking their place.

Select communities with major increases in unenrolled voters. Page 4.

A town-by-town analysis by the Globe of voter registrations for those years shows that of the 37 communities covered by Globe West, about two-thirds exhibited that trend.

Some independents lean left, some right, but there are many who lean neither way consistently. Warren said that although he watched most of the presidential debates, he has not decided who to vote for. The root of his indecision lies in his own split on issues -- he tends to be liberal on some (he's ''completely for gay marriage,") and conservative on others (he supports the war in Iraq.)

''Both parties just have too many flaws for me to commit to them," he said.

The tendency to register as unenrolled has become so pronounced in the western suburbs that in 2002, the figures show, unenrolled voters easily outnumbered either party in every Globe West community except Newton and Watertown. In Lincoln, 54 percent of voters were unenrolled, compared to 30 percent Democrats and 16 percent Republicans. In Wayland, 56 percent were unenrolled, compared to 26 percent Democrats and 18 percent Republicans. Berlin and Boylston had the highest percentage of unenrolled voters in the Globe West coverage area, at 65 percent each.

Of all the communities in the region, Milford saw the largest drop in the percentage share of Democrats, from 59 percent in 1982 to 36 percent in 2002. While the GOP share went up slightly, the big change was among the unenrolled -- in 1982 they represented 32 percent of Milford voters; in 2002 they were 52 percent.

''In the suburbs, they seem to not be wanting to choose political parties, but they're interested in issues," said former Democratic state representative Roberta Goldman of Shrewsbury.

Goldman thinks that as Shrewsbury's population exploded, many of the newcomers were young families buying costlier homes in the town's new developments. Those voters, she said, want to hear from candidates not about political affiliation, but about what they are going to do for their families.

''In Shrewsbury, they're interested in education," she said.

In Milford, said former selectman John Fernandes, ''we've seen a shift from the factory working-class community of the shoe shops and foundry to . . . a class of folks who are more of the high-tech mentality. And they tend to be more independent-thinking."

Fernandes's background is typical of Milford in the post-World War II era. His mother worked in a Milford shoe factory and his father worked in a nearby foundry in Hopedale. Both were high school dropouts and union members. The Kennedy family loomed large in his political youth.

For his children's generation, however, Fernandes said, registering Democratic won't be so automatic.

''By being independent thinkers, there will be more of a possibility they will gravitate to candidates based on who the candidates are rather than the party they represent," he said.

While Milford has continued to elect only Democratic legislators in the last 20 years, it has been less consistent on governors; Republican candidate Mitt Romney easily won the town in 2002.

The shifts in the western suburbs are part of a much larger trend in political history, according to Joe McEttrick, a Suffolk University law professor. ''The actual influence of parties as contrasted with individual candidates has diminished over the years," he said. Some of the reason, he thinks, is financial. ''The patterns of contribution have changed," McEttrick said. ''It's become so expensive to run for office -- for the Legislature for example -- the parties aren't there any longer to put party resources behind people. So candidates have become much more self-reliant."

Candidates being forced to get money from friends diminishes the power of the parties. At the same time, local political structures such as town committees have weakened, as it has become more difficult to get busier people to volunteer for anything, he said.

Town clerks noted that another reason for the rise in unenrolled registration is that unlike the rules in some other states, the unenrolled voter here can vote in either primary.

In Bellingham, it's impossible to pinpoint who the independents are, said Town Clerk Kathleen Harvey. Although both the Republican and Democratic town committees are active, she described those registering unenrolled as ''a random selection from all walks of town."

Town clerks in both Shrewsbury and Milford said that the trend seems to be continuing, because this year the majority of new voters checked ''unenrolled." Joseph Arcudi, Milford's town clerk, estimated that 70 percent of the new registrations he sees are independents.

Of course, not every town has followed the trend. Needham has a larger portion of unenrolled voters, from 43 percent in 1982 to 52 percent in 2002, but it came at the expense of the Republicans, not Democrats. The Democratic share of the town hardly shifted, while the GOP went from 26 percent of registered voters to 16 percent over those 20 years.

That Republican weakening was evident in state legislative elections over the years, said Needham Selectman Jerry Wasserman, a former state Senate candidate. In the 1980s, the town was represented by three Republicans; it then shifted to two Democrats. Now, there is one of each, although the Republican state senator, Scott Brown, is facing a rematch with Democrat Angus McQuilken, who lost to Brown earlier this year by only about 1 percent of the vote.

Wasserman said he sees the shift as generational -- student activists in the '60s were Democrats, but now are just as likely to be unenrolled. But he also blamed the national parties for distancing themselves from voters over the years with negative campaigning.

''The campaigns have become so much more superficial that [voters] don't see the values of the parties as much," he said.

Wasserman also pointed out that the Globe's computerized database numbers don't take into account the last two years, when both parties have become more energized nationwide and locally. Indeed, figures for the past two years, provided separately by the state, show Democrats inching back statewide. The percentage of Democrats rose from 36 to 37 percent, while unenrolled voters fell from 50 to 49 percent. Republicans held steady at 13 percent.

''The activity of both parties seems to be revving up at this point," Wasserman said, ''so you may see some results from that three, four, five years from now."

Of course, numbers don't always tell the whole story. Both parties lost percentage points in Watertown over the last two decades, with unenrolled voters picking up those shares.

But the town feels more liberal now, according to Steven Aylward, chairman of the Republican Town Committee in Watertown.

''I think the town has changed significantly over the past 20 years," he said. ''On the whole, it's been more of a liberal element moving in." But Aylward also made a distinction between local politics on the Town Council and School Committee, which technically are nonpartisan, and state and national politics.

He said those who vote in town elections tend to be the natives, who are more conservative. The newcomers, those he sees as further to the left, are more likely to participate in state legislative and national elections.