Social conservatives skeptical of Romney's viability in 2008

Newly energized social conservatives, fresh off their success in helping to reelect President Bush, are viewing Governor Mitt Romney's prospective White House candidacy in 2008 with deep suspicion because of his perceived support for abortion rights and a proposed gay marriage ban that would allow civil unions for gay couples, analysts and activists around the country say.

Though Romney is generally viewed as a conservative in the Massachusetts political climate, among activists who are crucial in GOP presidential politics, he is seen as a moderate on the two key subjects -- abortion and gay rights -- that galvanized voters on a moral issues agenda in the recently completed presidential campaign.

''A proabortion candidate would cause civil war within the party," said Tom McClusky, director of governmental affairs at the Family Research Council, a national advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that strongly opposes abortion and considers civil unions a threat to the concept of traditional marriage.

''I would see that as tearing apart the Republican base," said McClusky, who said social conservatives view Romney as ''an advocate of abortion."

Paul Weyrich, the chairman of the Free Congress Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, said Republicans have avoided nominating social moderates. He too predicted that any GOP candidate who held positions defending abortion would, if nominated, lead social conservatives to threaten to bolt the party.

''I tell you there would be a civil war," Weyrich said. ''People would not stick with the party. They would go elsewhere. Party officials know this. That is why they are not anxious for candidates like that."

Romney says he is personally against abortion, but has said he backs the ''basic Roe v. Wade abortion rights." In July 2001, however, The Salt Lake Tribune reported that Romney wrote a letter to the newspaper, stating: ''I do not wish to be labeled prochoice," and balked at Utah media accounts that characterized him as an abortion-rights supporter. Nonetheless, Massachusetts antiabortion activists label him ''proabortion," said Peg Whitbread, the president of Massachusetts Citizens for Life.

As for gay marriage, Romney's troubles with social conservatives stem from his support of a proposed state constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage but allow gay couples to join in civil unions that would provide many of the benefits and obligations of marriage.

Despite the concerns of social conservatives, many political analysts still give Romney a fair chance of emerging as a strong contender for the GOP nomination in 2008, if he chooses to run. They say his wealth, personally conservative lifestyle and religious values, and his record of business and political successes make him an attractive national Republican leader in the post-Bush era.

The analysts point out that fiscal conservatives praise Romney for his record as an antitax governor. They feel his personal opposition to abortion and his high-profile battle against gay marriage will blunt much of the right's attacks.

''The timing is right, and he's got tons of talent," said Stuart Stevens, a veteran Republican political consultant who worked on Bush's reelection effort. ''The guy is a star. Put him on a stage with any of those on the list of candidates, and the guy would have wattage to spare."

''We like governors and people who have a moral compass and have had successes like he has in his life, in business, politics, running the Winter Olympics," Stevens said.

Romney has not said whether he will run in 2008, but his trips to politically important states such as Iowa and New Hampshire in recent months have fueled speculation among activists and pundits that he is keeping his options open in case he decides to seek the nomination. He has said he expects to run for reelection as governor in 2006, but has not firmly committed to that option, either.

Romney's well-crafted political profile is based on displaying his political independence, pushing changes in state government, opposing tax hikes, and using his veto powers to battle the Democratic establishment. His critics say he is short on accomplishments, but others say his style is attractive to the national GOP.

Some political analysts are convinced that Romney's efforts to fight the implementation of gay marriage in Massachusetts give him some standing among the social conservatives. In June, he won plaudits from opponents of gay marriage for his testimony before the US Senate Judiciary Committee in support of an amendment to the US Constitution banning same-sex marriage.

Nonetheless, after this year's presidential election, Romney's middle-of-the-road stance on abortion and civil unions is likely to stir strong antipathy. McClusky, of the Family Research Council, said groups with similar agendas as his would be actively involved in the primary battles to make sure Romney and other social moderates do not emerge as the party's standard-bearer.

''We as groups would do what we could to advertise his history on those issues important to us," McClusky said. ''We have influence. . . . We are not kingmakers."

The socially-conservative right is not ready to give up its leverage in the GOP presidential elections, said Weyrich, chairman of the Free Congress Foundation. It is a position that could cause problems for Romney and other moderates such as Rudolph Giuliani of New York City or Governor George E. Pataki of New York. In fact, Pataki's political adviser, Arthur Finkelstein, has warned that the Bush strategy of courting evangelical Christians may cripple moderate GOP figures such as Pataki.

Stevens, the GOP consultant, disagreed, saying the rise of evangelicals in the party should not block Romney from entering the fray. ''They don't give these nominations away. Everyone on the list of potential candidates is going to have problems," said Stevens.

Romney's past leadership in the Mormon Church also could pay dividends. Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, believes Romney's candidacy would energize a base of Mormon support that is present in every state. ''It's an interesting network of activists around the country," Norquist said. Noting Romney would be the first president from the Mormon faith, Norquist added: ''First at anything gives you credit."

Still, Norquist and other national GOP observers, while praising Romney's record on taxes and budget cutting, are cautious about his prospects. Stephen Moore, the president of the Club for Growth, said the fiscally conservative Cato Institute is about to release its study of governors, which will list Romney among the five most fiscally conservative. But, he said, the governor is still not operating with the sort of national profile that would put him among the instant contenders.

''I would not write him off," said Moore, who is also a Cato Institute economist. ''Mitt Romney is amassing a very positive image on economic issues. But I don't see him as a front-tier presidential candidate. I see him as a front-tier vice-presidential candidate."

Moore cited another potentially powerful credential: Romney's ability to get elected in the liberal bastion of Massachusetts, fight the Democrats here, and survive. That is attractive to those Republicans who want a candidate that can appeal to independents and some Democrats, particularly in swing states.

''Those of us outside of Massachusetts feel that if Mitt Romney can govern Massachusetts, he certainly can govern the nation," said Moore. ''That would be a lot easier."