Poll suggests a solid lead for Menino

Boston voters are unhappy with the quality of the public schools, the high cost of housing, and the level of crime in the city, but they do not hold Mayor Thomas M. Menino responsible for the problems, and they are overwhelmingly planning to elect him to a fourth term, according to a new Boston Globe-CBS 4 poll.

The poll indicates that 66 percent of voters favor Menino, with only 27 percent saying they would vote for his opponent, Councilor at large Maura A. Hennigan. Six percent said they were undecided. Menino's job approval rating was a robust 72 percent.

However, voters surveyed expressed serious concern about services and the quality of life in Boston, and very few gave Menino high marks in addressing those problems.

Nearly 90 percent of those polled cited issues including education, crime and safety, and keeping jobs in Boston as very important, but fewer than 10 percent said he was doing an excellent job in those areas.

When asked about 10 issues facing the city, a majority said Menino was doing a fair, poor, or very poor job on six of them: crime and safety, the quality of schools, keeping jobs in Boston, city tax rates, high housing costs, and rowdy crowds. They were less critical of his performance in improving race and ethnic relations, expanding afterschool programs, maintaining city parks, and keeping city streets clean.

The fact that voters largely support Menino -- while at the same time saying that he has failed to make major strides in a number of areas -- may be the result of an increasing sense that the problems facing Boston, or any city, are intractable and largely out of a mayor's control, said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll.

Smith said the mayor benefits from a sense that life in the city has been generally improving over the last two decades.

Menino, one of the most popular mayors in recent Boston history, also appears to benefit from an amiable public image.

''They personally like the guy," Smith said of voters. ''When a person gets to that level of popularity, they can pretty much do whatever they want, and nothing sticks to them. It doesn't happen that often. It's a rare thing."

The poll of 513 randomly selected Boston voters was taken by phone Oct. 15-20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

According to the poll, Menino's popularity cut across all demographic groups: white and black, young and old, rich and poor. His highest marks came from elderly voters, African-American voters, and those earning between $75,000 and $100,000 a year.

''I think the mayor has done a good job in a lot of areas," said John Brennan, a retired AT&T sales representative from Charlestown who was questioned in the poll. ''Over time, crime is down. Streets are clean, parks are nice, and schools are getting better. There is still a long way to go in all of that.

''But he's a good guy with good intentions," Brennan said. ''I'm not sure that all of the problems can be specifically tied to him as a person or a mayor."

Sharon Mastrangelo, a municipal bond broker, said she lives on a street in Jamaica Plain where ''snowplowing was horrible, the lights are out and unless you scream bloody murder you don't get anything done." But even she is planning to vote for Menino.

''I don't see Maura Hennigan winning," she said. ''She's not the right candidate. It's kind of the lesser of two evils."

The poll indicated a widespread belief that Boston has become unaffordable. Eighty-one percent said that the city is not very affordable or not affordable at all, a perception shared by voters of all income levels, ages, and ethnicities. Forty-five percent said they believe that only wealthy people can afford to live in the city, with middle-income voters expressing that opinion the most often.

''If that continues, or gets worse, it sets up longer-term questions about whether the city can grow and attract new young people, who are still the lifeblood of a community," Smith said.

At the same time, only 26 percent of voters polled said they would move out of the city if they had the chance. A similar Globe poll conducted in 1991 found that 43 percent surveyed would leave.

On one level, the poll appeared to indicate severe shortcomings in Menino's administration, whose drumbeat for more than a decade has been promises of better schools, lower crime, and more affordable housing.

But it also seemed to vindicate other hallmarks of Menino's tenure, his nearly obsessive schedule of neighborhood visits and a political persona as an everyman who does his best.

Those qualities have proven difficult for his challenger to overcome. The poll indicated, for example, that Hennigan's calls for more debates before the Nov. 8 election are falling on deaf ears. Voters believe that the two debates already held (one on television, another on radio) were enough, according to the poll; 54 percent said that Menino's refusal to debate more than twice does not matter in the election.

Voters generally like both candidates. Seventy percent of the voters view Menino favorably; while 17 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 10 percent were neutral.

While only 10 percent of the voters surveyed regarded Hennigan unfavorably, her favorability also was lower, at 47 percent.

And the percentage of people who don't know Hennigan is relatively high, 28 percent, an obstacle difficult to overcome with just over two weeks left in the campaign, said Smith.

Only 3 percent of those polled did not know Menino.

''Hennigan is not well known," Smith said. ''Her numbers would be good if we were in the summer, with two or three months to go. Now, you want 'don't knows' to be 10 percent or lower."

Of the currently undecided voters, 6 percent of those polled, the majority is likely to vote for Hennigan, Smith said.

Despite Menino's widespread popularity, a small number of voters polled expressed strong feelings against the mayor and planned to vote for Hennigan.

''My feeling is anyone but Menino," said Andrew, a management consultant from the Fenway who was polled but asked that his last name not be published.

''It's become a cult of personality," Andrew said. ''He has to have his name on everything. I'm seeing taxes go up, and a lot of companies that did business in Boston are no longer so enthralled with the city. I saw the choke of the DNC and how it drove money out of the city for over a week. He's had a chance and hasn't done a good job."

Interest in the election is only moderate, the poll results indicate. Only 20 percent of those polled said they were extremely interested and 36 percent said they were ''very interested."

Fifty three percent said they will definitely go to the polls Nov. 8. More than any other ethnic group, 63 percent of the African-Americans polled said they will definitely vote. Nearly three-quarters of those age 50 to 64 said they will vote.