Cardinal list may include O'Malley

Pope Benedict XVI is expected to announce today the naming of a dozen or more new cardinals, and Archbishop Sean P. O'Malley of Boston is among two American bishops who could be included, according to Vatican observers.

The appointments of the so-called princes of the church are the first by Benedict, who was elected pontiff after the death of Pope John Paul II last April. The new cardinals -- who would receive the red hats, or birettas, that signal the rank at a ceremony in Rome next month -- would help oversee the Vatican's bureaucracy through service on oversight committees, and ultimately many of them could have a vote in the selection of Benedict's successor.

O'Malley is widely expected to be named a cardinal at some point because of the prominence of Boston in the global Catholic Church, and an elevation to cardinal would be a strong vote of confidence from the Vatican on O'Malley's handling of the aftermath of the clergy sexual abuse crisis and the closings of dozens of local parishes. An elevation could also quiet persistent speculation among local Catholic priests and laypeople that O'Malley intends to leave Boston.

But Benedict must also weigh demographics in his decisions. The United States is already overrepresented in the college of cardinals, a factor that works against O'Malley's elevation. Currently, Americans make up just 6 percent of the global Catholic Church, but 10 percent of the cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope.

''They don't want to have too many American cardinals, because it skews the College of Cardinals, but, on the other hand, Boston has been a place that has had a cardinal for a long time historically," said Stephen J. Pope, an associate professor of theology at Boston College. ''It's been such a controversial archdiocese. One could imagine Archbishop O'Malley being given this honor as a way of rewarding him for having to endure some pretty difficult conditions and being willing to do so out of a strong sense of his own duty and love of the church. It would be a way of encouraging him and saying his efforts are valued."

The most likely American to be named cardinal is the prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Archbishop William J. Levada, formerly head of the Archdiocese of San Francisco. The agency Levada heads, which previously was headed by Benedict, is among the most important in the church, and its top official is almost always a cardinal.

O'Malley would probably be next in line, largely because of the status of Boston as a large and historic American see. For nearly a century, every archbishop of Boston has been named a cardinal, starting in 1911 with Cardinal William H. O'Connell.

Although American Catholics are most familiar with cardinals as leaders of large archdioceses, there are also cardinals who hold jobs overseeing Vatican agencies or work as theologians. Boston's former archbishop, Cardinal Bernard F. Law, remains an active cardinal, even though he resigned as archbishop of Boston because of controversy over his failure to remove sexually abusive priests from ministry. Law now serves as archpriest of the Basilica of St. Mary Major in Rome and is referred to as ''archbishop emeritus of Boston" by the Vatican.

The names of new cardinals are a closely guarded secret, and spokesmen for O'Malley and the US Conference of Catholic Bishops said they did not know who would be named this time.

As a cardinal, O'Malley would be eligible to vote in any papal elections until he turns 80 and would take on new responsibilities in the global church, including invitations to speak at various church events around the world.

''It could be of help at the level of political muscle -- you could make the argument that he would be taken more seriously," said John L. Allen Jr., Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter. ''The challenge would be that once you become a cardinal, it puts more pressure on you to travel and be out of your diocese, and . . . that could become an issue."

O'Malley, 61, has served as archbishop of Boston since July 2003. A Capuchin Franciscan friar, he had previously served as bishop of Palm Beach, Fla.; Fall River, Mass.; and the US Virgin Islands. O'Malley had a close relationship with John Paul II.

He had a private meeting with the new pontiff in Rome Oct. 27.

Michael Paulson can be reached at mpaulson@globe.com.