Caution: Slowdown ahead
Buyers are gaining the upper hand in a softening real estate market
![]() Andrew (left) and Daniel Kerble play outside their Swampscott home, which their parents said they expected would sell quickly this winter. (Globe Staff Photo / Mark Wilson) |
Eric and Denise Kerble of Swampscott put their spacious Colonial on the market in January for $399,900, betting it would sell fast in a seaside town where the average price tag on a single family house is at least $100,000 more.
With three young sons, plus loads of baseball bats and hockey equipment, the Kerbles needed to make a move, preferably somewhere west of Boston, to be closer to jobs and family.
Now, after more than 100 days without an offer, the Kerbles have dropped their price to $394,900, hoping to lure a buyer at the height of the spring selling season.
''We hope this does the trick," said Denise Kerble, 37, seated in her living room. ''Lots of people have looked at it, but nobody takes the next step."
The Kerbles are one of the many Massachusetts families living in limbo, trapped in a suddenly stagnant real estate market that has forced them to put their dreams on hold.
After five red-hot years, home sales have cooled north of Boston and across the state. Gone are the days of multiple bids, price run-ups, and fast sales. Falling prices, rising inventory, and longer selling periods are now the norm, industry watchers say.
''We're at a turning point," said John Bitner, chief economist at Eastern Bank of Lynn. ''The upward movement has definitely turned the other way. . . . It's a buyer's market."
Home sales in Massachusetts dropped 8.4 percent from January to March, compared with the same period last year, and 13 percent over the last 14 months, according to a report issued last week by the Warren Group, a real estate research firm in Boston.
In March, home sales and prices dropped 1.5 percent, with the average selling price falling to $325,000 from $330,000 in March 2004, the Warren Group reported.
The slowdown has left a glut of homes sitting idle -- and hundreds of homeowners waiting impatiently for the chance to downsize, trade up, or move closer to family or even out of state for a job.
Currently, 2,279 single-family homes are for sale north of Boston, a 48 percent increase over April 2005, when 1,538 homes were listed, according to data collected by the Multiple Listing Services Inc. Since 2001, the average number of days on the market has increased to 91 from 69 last year in the region, according to MLS.
Local realtors say the falling prices and longer marketing periods show the market has come back down to earth after years of skyrocketing sales.
''This is a normal market," said Ruth Pino, a vice president at Carlson GMAC Real Estate in Gloucester. ''Five years ago, properties would sell after two weeks, two days, sometimes even after just two hours. . . . That couldn't last."
''Things are much more realistic now," said Claire Dembowski, a broker at Carlson's Swampscott office, who is also the listing agent for the Kerbles' house. ''Sellers had the advantage for a long time, but now the cycle is going the other way."
With inventories climbing, sellers no longer can name their asking price.
''People can't just throw a figure on a property and expect to get it," said Charlene Marinelli, owner of Marie Wood Real Estate in Melrose. ''They have to look at what has sold around them in their neighborhood. . . . Buyers aren't jumping as quickly."
Ron and Jen Wilson of Peabody have already sized up the competition in their Johnson Avenue neighborhood as they prepare to put their Cape-style house on the market. Homes across the street and behind them are for sale.
''Our house will be the lowest price of the three houses," said Wilson, 35, a printer who hopes to put it on the market in the low $300,000s. ''I really don't think it's going to take very long. It's a great starter home for someone."
In Middleton, competition from new homes for sale on East Street prompted Patrick and Susan McIntire to drop the price on their Colonial that they first listed at $419,900 in November. The house is priced at $399,900, but still has received no offers.
''We don't want to give our house away," said Susan McIntire, 46, who hopes to find a house with more land in New Hampshire. ''We've put a lot of sweat into it. . . . But it's also very frustrating trying to sell a house now. There are more places to live than people looking to buy."
The Kerbles have been scouring websites for open houses west of the city and found the perfect spot in Boxborough. But they will not buy a new house until they sell their house on Brewster Terrace.
''We don't want to take the risk," said Eric Kerble, 37, a financial analyst at monster.com, the online recruiter. ''We're not in a rush to sell. . . . I do think this house is priced right."
The couple paid $206,000 for the gray, 1,586-square-foot house eight years ago, outbidding several other prospective buyers. They said they have since spent more than $25,000 on upgrades -- a new roof, windows, wallpaper, and bathroom. The three-bedroom house, on a dead-end street near the town center, was a good first home, they said.
''The street offered us a lot of privacy," said Denise Kerble, a Boston public school teacher. ''We liked that we could walk to the ocean and the train station."
The Kerbles knew that selling a house in a slowing market would require patience. They have watched market trends closely since last fall. At the same time, they don't want to put a move off too long. They want to take advantage of still-favorable interest rates, which last week were 6.08 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. And with three growing boys, ages 3 1/2 to 7 1/2, they know eventually they will need a bigger house. Now they just need a buyer.
''Every time we have an open house or a showing," Eric Kerble said, ''we're always thinking, 'This could be it.' "
Kathy McCabe can be reached at kmccabe@globe.com. ![]()
