State's population growth on stagnant course

Population growth in Massachusetts was essentially flat last year, according to new US Census data that shows a continuing pattern of stagnation that many fear threatens the state's economic and social prospects.

Massachusetts gained 3,825 people in the past year as foreign immigrant arrivals offset continued flight from the Bay State, according to the data.

The census data released yesterday covers July 2005 to July 2006, and displayed a pattern evident since at least 2000: Nearly 50,000 people left Massachusetts over the past year, while about 30,000 foreign-born immigrants arrived.

The state inched to its slender gain because 22,503 more people were born than died.

"It's yet more confirmation that our worries about stagnation are warranted," said Paul Grogan , president of the nonprofit Boston Foundation. "If this continues, the state could slip into a long-term decline that could be hard to reverse."

The population in Massachusetts grew by 0.1 percent, the fifth lowest rate in the nation. The Northeast's population increased by the same percentage. In the West, the population jumped 1.5 percent, and the South notched a 1.4 percent gain.

The top five growth states in percentage terms were Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Georgia, and Texas.

The findings underscore that the state's political system will continue to face challenges from demographic trends, with a vigorous debate already underway on Beacon Hill over how to police and care for new arrivals from other countries. Other political leaders also have sounded calls to ease the high housing costs that appear to be driving many away.

But the new data also shows that Massachusetts is not alone in its anemic growth: The Northeast as a whole grew by just 281,000 people while the South expanded by 1.5 million, adding to its status as the nation's most populated region.

"This is happening all over the East Coast. I think there's a housing affordability gap between these places and other parts of the country," said William Frey , a demographer at the Brookings Institute.

He said that as people leave, housing prices should come down and attract people to Massachusetts. But it's unclear when that could happen, said Frey.

"This trend in Massachusetts and the Northeast has lasted much longer than I expected," he said.

Flight from the state has been well-chronicled in recent years. In May, a Globe poll of former Massachusetts residents found that better jobs and housing costs were the top reasons people left the Bay State.

Seventy-three percent of those surveyed said their new house was more spacious than their former Massachusetts digs, and 54 percent indicated they enjoy a higher standard of living. Half of respondents said housing costs were a major factor in their departure.

Meanwhile, as one population left the state, another continued to arrive.

In August, US Census data showed that the number of immigrants living in Massachusetts households climbed 15.4 percent over the first half of this decade, a trend that continued last year.

The shift is driven by Latin Americans: Nearly 40 percent of the state's immigrant population came from Central or South America, the data found.

About 41 percent of the population gain in Massachusetts between 2000 and 2005 was due to Latinos.

However, Grogan warned that immigration patterns have fluctuated throughout American history, saying, "We can't count on an indefinite stream of immigrants to shore up our population."

The South now comprises 36 percent of the US population, while the once-dominant Northeast represents just 18 percent. The data also made clear the long-term impact of Hurricane Katrina: Louisiana lost nearly 5 percent of its population, about 220,000 people, in the year after the storm, the largest single state population loss in recent history.