Warnings of a crowded future

Marc Draisen has seen the future for suburban communities, and for many, he said, it is troubling. They will grapple with serious water shortages. They will battle worsening traffic. And they will lose acres upon acres of fields and farmland.

That bleak picture for a large swath of Boston's northern suburbs comes from "MetroFuture," a report by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council that forecasts significant problems over the next two decades if community leaders fail to dramatically change residential development patterns.

"A lot of communities felt they were growing too fast, so they adopted large-lot zoning as a way out of the problem," said Draisen, the regional agency's executive director. "They have since discovered they are losing open space just as fast to lawns and driveways."

The study urges communities to concentrate growth around urban and town centers and transportation hubs, a policy known as smart growth. It also calls for smaller houses and clustered development to preserve open space.

Without these changes, sprawl threatens the quality of life for most people in the region, according to the report, which predicts that by the year 2030:

Twelve communities in the area, all between Amesbury and Danvers, would suffer water shortages. However, only four would have a shortage if smart-growth polices were adopted.

More than 19,000 acres of open space will be lost in the region. Middleton alone could lose 2,200 acres. But only about 5,700 acres of open space would be lost if development is properly shaped.

An estimated 5,100 new housing units would be scattered across what is now mostly open space, rather than being concentrated in areas that are already relatively urban, such as Revere, Saugus, and Lynn.

Many northern suburbs have been more active in preserving open space than their counterparts south and west of Boston, Draisen said.

But that doesn't necessarily mean they have been smart about growth. Many, for instance, have not built a diverse housing stock to create affordable opportunities for renters, downsizing baby boomers, and younger families, he said.

The latest figures from the state's Department of Housing and Community Development underscore the point. The department's numbers show that fewer than a third of the communities north of Boston have reached the state's minimum target, having at least 10 percent of the housing stock considered affordable.

Coming in dead last is Boxford, with just seven-tenths of 1 percent of its housing labeled affordable under state standards.

"We have adults who have grown up and are working in town and can't afford to stay here," said Holly Langer, who serves on Boxford's Planning Board. "We also have seniors who would love to sell their home and stay in the community."

Langer said the town would be hard-pressed to create the kind of clustered affordable housing advocated in the "MetroFuture" report. Boxford has two tiny village centers on opposite sides of town, virtually no commercial base or public transit, and no municipal water supply; everyone is on private wells.

And, she said, no one in town seems to be pushing for a municipal water system, which would be a necessary first step.

Boxford would also have to change its zoning, which now requires in most places a minimum 2-acre lot size to protect homeowners' wells from contaminants, Langer said.

Beverly did change its zoning, in December 2005, to spur more clustered growth. Now the city is reconsidering.

"We perhaps, maybe overstepped a bit," said Tina Cassidy, Beverly's director of planning and development.

The city adopted an ordinance to encourage developers to cluster housing on lots while preserving half the acreage for recreation, trails, and other open areas.

But the ordinance is difficult to understand and has had some unintended consequences, Cassidy said. It requires anyone developing four or more units, or more than 2 acres, to undergo a complex review process that appears to have stymied the type of development it was intended to encourage, she said.

But Beverly has lured several developers recently to build condominiums and retail shops along its waterfront and near the commuter rail station downtown.

When one, Manchester-based Windover Development, ran into problems completing the five affordable condos it promised for a 46-unit project, the city negotiated a solution that allows Windover to include just one affordable unit in that development but requires it to create five additional rental units nearby, Cassidy said.

"There's virtually no construction of apartment buildings these days," she said. "And this will be in perpetuity that these five apartments would be affordable, so we seized on that."

Along the New Hampshire border, Salisbury's leaders are racing to stay ahead of their community's explosive growth, said Planning Board chairman Larry Cuddire.

They are especially worried about the nightmarish traffic that has developed east of Route 1 all the way to Salisbury Beach, where a number of sizable projects are in the pipeline or underway, he said. It's the same area that the regional council's "MetroFuture" report predicts will have the most severe traffic congestion north of Boston.

As part of the recent approval process for a 210-unit condominium complex just off Salisbury Beach, town officials have required the development to include its own bus system to carry residents to the beach and the commuter rail, Cuddire said.

Officials are scrutinizing other bus routes in the area.

"The routes were set up years ago, and they don't go where people want to go anymore," Cuddire said.

Several area communities are aggressively seizing smart-growth opportunities. In Lynn, the city is working to move power lines away from its underutilized waterfront, to clear the way for residential and retail development. The area is about a block from a commuter rail station.

And in Salem and Peabody, industrial buildings downtown are being transformed into loft, residential, and retail space.

Robert Bradford, president of the North Shore Chamber of Commerce, said such smart-growth transformations make dollars and sense.

"More diversified types of housing in a region will definitely aid in the economy," he said, "especially if there are high- quality options for all income ranges. The suburban sprawl -- people can't afford it any longer."

Kay Lazar can be reached at klazar@globe.com.

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