GOP sees cause for hope in the Fifth District

In 1996, after US Representative Peter Torkildsen, Republican of Peabody, was narrowly defeated by Democrat John Tierney, he lamented to reporters, "Massachusetts is the only large industrial state without a bipartisan delegation."

It has remained that way ever since.

But now, Torkildsen and other Republicans are energized by a race in the Fifth Congressional District that they think could finally inject a splash of red into the sea of blue.

Victory is still seen a long shot in a state where Republicans are smarting from recent loses -- they now occupy only 10 percent of the seats in the Legislature, and they lost the governor's seat last year for the first time in 16 years -- but Republicans say they have several reasons to be optimistic about the Oct. 16 election.

The Republican front-runner, Jim Ogonowski, is a candidate with a compelling life story that has attracted national attention to the race and brought in money from around the country. The district also has a strong Republican history and one of the most conservative electorates in the state. And for the first time in six years, a Republican congressional candidate in Massachusetts does not have to contend with the power of incumbency.

US Representative Martin T. Meehan, who held the seat for 14 years, created the vacancy when he announced in March that he was resigning to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell.

"Open seats in Massachusetts are extremely rare, and an open seat where Republicans are competitive is even rarer," said Torkildsen, now chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party.

The GOP has been updating its e-mail list with plans to mobilize volunteers to hold signs, knock on doors, and work the phones.

"We think it's an opportunity for us," Torkildsen said. "There's no such thing as an easy Republican win in Massachusetts, but it's definitely going to be a competitive race."

The district is anchored in the northwest suburbs of Boston, which has Republican-leaning rural towns like Dunstable and Tyngsborough and the Democratic bastions of Lowell and Lawrence. The fifth sent Grand Old Party representatives to Congress from 1895 until Democrat Paul Tsongas was elected in 1974. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the district, a slim majority of the voters are unenrolled.

"The huge unenrolled group offers Ogonowski the hope that he could win in a head-to-head race," said Jeffrey Gerson, political science professor at University of Massachusetts at Lowell. "And I think it's a real race. . . . It's an uphill fight, but I don't rule him out. They have a reason to be optimistic, certainly more optimistic than anyone who's challenged Marty Meehan in recent years."

Ogonowski's brother was one of the pilots of American Airlines Flight 11, which was hijacked Sept. 11, 2001, and flown into the World Trade Center.

Since announcing his candidacy, this tragic story line has helped him land prominent interviews on CNN's "Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer" and Fox News' "Your World with Neil Cavuto."

Ogonowski, a 49-year-old farmer from Dracut, has also been leaning on his 28-year career as an Air Force lieutenant colonel in an effort to demonstrate that he will help protect Americans in the "global war on terrorism" and won't allow Congress to "cut and run."

In his first campaign for elected office, Ogonowski also makes frequent references to Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy, as he seeks to cast himself as an outsider who will refrain from partisan politics.

"Today with our country so divided, Jim Ogonowski is needed again to put politics aside and fix a broken Washington," a deep-voiced narrator says in his television ad. As the hymn "I Vow to Thee, My Country" plays softly in the background, a family portrait showing Ogonowski in a military uniform flashes across the screen.

"He's probably one of the better congressional candidates who's come forward in the last few elections cycles from the Republican side" in Massachusetts, said Dominick Ianno, a GOP strategist and former executive director of the state Republican Party.

Ogonowski raised $233,138 by Aug. 15, including maximum $2,300 donations from both Mitt Romney's wife, Ann, and their oldest son, Tagg.

The Republican National Congressional Committee has not yet decided whether to pour money into Ogonowski's campaign, but this spring party leaders invited Ogonowski to attend a school for candidates to train him in fundraising, polling, and forming a campaign organization.

"We are certainly paying attention to the race," said Ken Spain, press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has made consultants and fund-raisers available to Ogonowski. "Jim Ogonowski is running an excellent campaign."

After Ogonowski announced he was running, several other Republicans dropped out of the race. In the Sept. 4 primary, he is facing Thomas P. Tierney, who has lost four previous bids for the seat, including one in which he ran as a Democrat. Tierney lives just outside the district in Framingham.

Despite the GOP's high hopes for Ogonowski, many outside political observers say it will be difficult, though not impossible, for a Republican to win in Massachusetts.

"The political environment has shifted the pendulum so far to the Democrats that it's almost impossible to see how Republicans can gain ground here," said David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the Cook Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter based in Washington.

"At this point, for Republicans to get any wins in the Northeast would be big," said Jon McHenry, a Washington-based GOP pollster and strategist.

"But it's sort of like Tampa Bay winning the AL East. No one's expecting it, but it would be a huge deal if it happened."

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.