2007 drop in crime buoys Hub leaders

But troubling trends remain

Sergeant Lisa Holmes and Patrolman Dennis Morson of the Boston police Safe Streets team patrolled the Grove Hall section of Roxbury yesterday. (aram boghosian for the boston globe)

Boston finished 2007 with fewer homicides, shootings, and aggravated assaults than in 2006, filling police and some religious and community leaders with hope that violence will continue to drop in the coming year.

The number of homicides in the city dropped to 66 in 2007, down from 74 in 2006 and below the 10-year high of 75 in 2005. The number of nonfatal shootings fell from 373 to 322 in 2007, as of Dec. 25. For the period from Jan. 1 to Dec. 23, aggravated assaults fell from 4,351 in 2006 to 4,166 last year.

Commissioner Edward F. Davis, who sent dozens of new detectives throughout the city last week, said yesterday that he expects violent crime to continue to fall in 2008.

"I'm very confident that this coming year is going to be better than 2007," he said in a telephone interview. "We're optimistic."

But others pointed to troubling trends that could prove difficult to reverse.

Many of the shootings in 2007 occurred in daylight and several victims and suspects of fatal shootings were particularly young. Four people killed by gunfire last year were 14 years old or younger; in 2006, just one victim was that young. And police are sometimes stymied by the refusal of witnesses to cooperate with investigators.

"You still have that 'stop snitching' culture and we really need to step up because the police and the DA's office can't do it alone," said Matthew Machera, a former prosecutor and chairman of the board of the Ella J. Baker House in Dorchester. "Only then, are you really going to be able to take a community back."

Davis said he remains concerned about witness cooperation but pointed to developments that show the community has begun to trust police more. Police received 612 tips on the department's anonymous hot line last year and 476 text messages since June, when the text program was launched.

Davis said many of the tips had identified people suspected in recent homicides. Davis also confirmed that the department is developing a cold-case division that would investigate old, unsolved homicides. He declined to provide details, saying he was not ready to discuss the unit yet.

A law enforcement official with knowledge of the unit said it will be composed of a sergeant detective and two detectives who will examine cases five years old and older. Previously, one detective was assigned to investigate cold cases, said the official, who asked for anonymity, lacking authorization to discuss the unit publicly.

Community leaders said people are less wary of police because of new initiatives like the Safe Streets teams, groups of six police officers who regularly patrol some of Boston's toughest neighborhoods. Jorge Martinez, executive director of Project Right in Grove Hall, said crime should keep falling if city officials, police, and community leaders continue to work together to prevent violence.

"We're going to have a very good year next year," said Martinez. "I think we can scale back the violence that we've been seeing."

Ministers said they would continue efforts they say helped reduce violence in 2007, such as identifying and helping troubled teenagers, creating safe places for them to go at night, and praying.

"People who are not of faith may not believe in prayer," said the Rev. William E. Dickerson, pastor at Greater Love Tabernacle. "But prayer is a real vital part of dealing with the violence. We believe in promoting peace and creating peace because we're not crime fighters. In the spiritual battle that we face, we have to use spiritual weapons."

Other cities reported a drop in homicides in 2007. New York's homicides fell from 590 in 2006 to 493, which police officials believe is the lowest it has been in 40 years. In Chicago, murders fell from 469 in 2006 to 442 in 2007.

Criminologist Larry Siegel, who teaches criminal justice at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, said it may be too early to become hopeful over a one-year reduction in Boston's crime.

Homicides in 2007 were still up in Boston, when compared with 2004, when there were 64, and 2003, when there were 41.

"A one-year drop is not enough to be totally optimistic," Siegel said. "It's like losing weight. It's better to go down, but it's not like you're thin."

Maria Cramer can be reached at mcramer@globe.com. Globe correspondent Matthew P. Collette contributed to this story.