Most young Bay Staters say future's bright

Survey taken to learn how to keep key demographic

A majority of state residents ages 25 to 39 - seen as holding the key to the state's economic competitiveness - feel upwardly mobile and believe the future looks bright for their children in Massachusetts, despite current strains on their pocketbooks, a new survey suggests.

Eighty percent of those polled said they expect to be earning higher incomes in five years. And 65 percent of young parents said they expect their children to be better off economically than themselves.

But if the state wants to improve its odds of keeping them from moving to other states, it may have to work on changing some perceptions. Sixty-three percent of survey respondents also said they are skeptical about local and state governments' ability to fix things, placing greater confidence in their employers and private industry.

The wide-ranging survey of 801 people released today by MassINC, a nonpartisan public policy think tank, offers policy makers a window into the thinking of a key pool of citizens - the same group considered pure gold by marketers - whose success will largely determine the state's economic future.

"We are leading the country into the knowledge-based economy, and if this demographic is not staying with us, so to speak, we are going to have problems down the road," said Greg Torres, president of MassINC.

"We need this demographic to stay; we need them to be actively involved in our workforce; and we need this demographic to form the leadership of the future in business and government," he said.

Officials have previously asserted the importance of keeping young adults in Massachusetts to form the highly skilled workforce that will keep Massachusetts competitive. Boston officials have been meeting with groups of 20- to 35-year-olds since 2004 as part of a push by Mayor Thomas M. Menino to keep them in the city despite their concerns about housing costs, crime, and quality of public education. Governor Deval Patrick has committed tens of millions of dollars to biotechnology research, a field dominated by young professionals and that many experts say forms the foundation for future economic growth.

But there's been little research into the factors that have kept adults ages 25 to 40, who represent one-fifth of the state's population, in Massachusetts and what could prompt them to pack up and leave. The survey provides some clues for policy makers but also shows there's no one clear answer.

For Nathan Lee, 36, a respondent to the MassINC survey who has lived in Massachusetts all his life except for seven years in Houston, the answer is simple.

"I'll stay in Massachusetts as long as I have a job," said Lee, who works in a restaurant as a cook.

The survey indicated that there are real differences among three groups of young people: those who grew up in other states, those who were born in Massachusetts and never left, and those, like Lee, who lived outside Massachusetts for at least a year but came back.

Researchers call the first group "imports." They grew up outside the state and represent 37 percent of the survey. They tend to have college degrees and good jobs, but are concerned about the cost of living. Seventy-one percent of them live in Greater Boston.

The second group, "homegrowns," constitutes 40 percent of respondents. They tend to say they are on less firm financial footing and fret about jobs, but they have strong family and community ties.

Called "boomerangs" by MassINC, the third group have seen the world - or at least another state - and decided to come home. They are highly engaged in civic life; more than half have attended community meetings and contacted their elected officials, but are less satisfied with how things are going for their families.

The imports are changing the face of the state, the researchers say, bringing increased racial and ethnic diversity, higher incomes, and personal satisfaction. Conventional Bay State wisdom has it that the state's abundance of higher education institutions draw young people to the Bay State. That's true, but the survey indicates that the young people who move to Massachusetts and set down roots are more likely to be drawn by jobs than by education. Thirty-nine percent of transplants came for jobs, while 24 percent came to attend college.

"We always hear so much about the colleges being this magnet, but once you get past that immediate college age, jobs are clearly more important," said Dana Ansel, research director at MassINC.

The message for policy makers from this all-important group is to do something about housing costs. Only 49 percent of imports who live in Greater Boston own their own homes.

Homegrown residents are less likely than imports to be happy with their jobs and personal finances.

"I've thought about leaving Massachusetts, but this is basically all I know," said Ira Rivera, 36, a single mother of three who lives in Chelsea. "I wouldn't know where to start if I left."

John C. Drake can be reached at jdrake@globe.com.