Majority-minority no more?
Remember all the hullabaloo over population figures from the 2000 Census showing that, for the first time, minority groups made up a majority of Boston's population? Never mind.
The most current data from the US Census Bureau on the city's racial makeup suggest that the balance has tipped ever so slightly back to whites making up a majority of Boston residents.
The 2000 Census reported that minority groups made up 50.5 percent of the city's population, while whites accounted for 49.5 percent. But from 2000 to 2006, the latest data show Boston experienced a loss of about 6,000 black residents and 3,000 white residents, a difference that pushed the white proportion of the population to 50.2 percent. (The numbers for Asian and Hispanic residents both rose, but only slightly.)
According to officials at the Boston Redevelopment Authority, it's too soon to say for sure whether the decades-long trend of minorities making up a growing share of the city population has stopped or even reversed slightly. One thing city officials say they are sure of, however, is that the American Community Survey, which the race numbers are taken from, is undercounting Boston's overall population.
The annual survey, which relies on a questionnaire sent to approximately 3 million US households, pegged Boston's 2006 population at 575,187, which would be a decrease of about 14,000 residents since the 2000 Census.
City officials insist that Boston's population is growing, not shrinking. Their claim is supported by a separate annual population estimate done by the Census Bureau, based on data on births, deaths, building permits, and records from Medicare and other agencies, which put the city's 2006 population at 595,698. The population estimate from these administrative records is regarded as a firmer measure of overall population changes than the American Community Survey, but it doesn't report data on race at the city level.
"The real question is, 'who moved in?' and not 'who left?' " says BRA spokeswoman Susan Elsbree. BRA officials say there is some evidence that whites may be accounting for an increasing share of the city population.
If true, that would represent a marked change in the city's population patterns, but one that would be consistent with a trend seen nationally.
William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, says that among the 59 US cities with populations of 300,000 or more, roughly two-thirds have shown either an increase in the proportion of white residents or a pronounced slowdown in the long-term decline in white population during the first part of the decade. "I draw the conclusion that white flight has ended, or at least certainly is at a distinct lull," he says.
There are all sorts of theories about what's going on in US cities. A recent Wall Street Journal story pointed to everything from the migration of middle-class blacks to suburbs to the growing allure of city life for young white professionals and empty-nesters.
Paul Watanabe, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, says he doubts the numbers showing a growth in the proportion of whites in Boston will hold up in the 2010 Census, since minorities tend to make up a larger share of city households having children.
Nevertheless, he says, all the attention given to Boston's new "majority-minority" status following the 2000 Census makes the possibility that the trend has reversed or stabilized a natural topic of interest.
"I made a lot out of the 'majority-minority' thing," says Watanabe. When he saw the figures suggesting Boston's minority population had dipped back under 50 percent, he says, "I joked to friends, 'Are we going to start writing about that, too?' "
Well, once at least.
Michael Jonas can be reached at jonas@globe.com.
