Gas prices fuel interest in alternatives

For months, the words "four-dollar gas" have served as convenient shorthand to explain a range of American lifestyle changes - the cars we buy, the places we live, the vacations we take, and our willingness to crowd into subways.

But gas prices have been falling and were near $3.60 last week in the Boston area, according to the American Automobile Association.

Happy days! Will we rev up our sport utility vehicles, drive across the country, destroy our CharlieCards, and throw down a payment on a suburban big-box home?

Doubtful, but it's worth asking how long our gas-misering will last as the price of fuel lurches up and down.

This could be a critical moment, not only to observe whether the trend toward shorter and fewer car trips continues, but also to watch whether Americans demand better transit options from their government and whether investors continue to show interest in alternative fuels.

Daniel A. Grabauskas, general manager of the MBTA, said $3 gas started the move toward record-high subway, bus, and train ridership. And $4 gas solidified that trend. He is eager to see July and August ridership numbers to measure whether the moderate dip in gas prices has slowed the trend at all.

Several people I spoke with pointed out that psychology could play a significant role in such behavior. As we get used to paying more, our definition of cheap could change.

"Right now, I hear people exclaiming with glee that they paid $3.39 for gas somewhere," said Art Kinsman, spokesman for AAA Southern New England. "People have to remember, they're still paying almost a dollar more than they were last year. So prices are still extraordinarily high."

He was expecting a slight drop in Labor Day travel this weekend compared with last year. Kinsman speculated that if prices fall below $3 per gallon again, some people may go back to their old ways, believing "we are out of the woods." He hopes the majority will stay vigilant.

The drop in consumption has helped push prices down. If people stop conserving, that will push prices yet higher.

The larger economy will also play a role in these decisions. Home heating oil is expected to cost many families as much as $5,000 this winter, said Henry Lee, a director of the environment and natural resources program at Harvard's Kennedy School.

That means many families will have little choice but to look for savings elsewhere - driving less or switching to public transit.

"The key is to keep the momentum going," Lee said. "And it's really hard."

Americans have spent much of the last century solidifying our relationship with the car, putting more miles on almost every year.

Gas prices will rise and fall. In the meantime, the nation's focus could easily shift to healthcare or some other big issue and the push to develop alternative fuels and slice gasoline dependence could falter, Lee warns.

"We're going to have to do a lot more if we're going to significantly reduce our use of oil," he said.

Transit leaders talk fares
Secretary of Transportation Bernard Cohen convened a much-ballyhooed meeting of state transportation leaders earlier this month in hopes of avoiding turnpike toll hikes and large fare increases on the MBTA over the next 18 months.

After the closed-door meeting, Cohen said he was developing a plan to channel money from richer transportation agencies and give it to poorer ones. He said it would take a week, maybe two, to release specifics. As of tomorrow, it will be three weeks. And still no specifics. Cohen's spokesman, Klark Jessen, said "they're still working on it" last week.

"I would assume something would come forward sooner rather than later," he said.

In the meantime, the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, chaired by Cohen, released a plan that would dodge a toll increase in January. But it depends on cutting deep into reserves, and risking further damage to the agency's credit rating. It also depends on a contested plan to remove toll discounts for Fast Lane users and certain neighborhoods.

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