In N.H. poll, signs of a Democratic sweep

Double-digit lead for Shaheen over Sununu

Just 10 days before the election, Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen has taken a commanding double-digit lead over the Republican incumbent, US Senator John E. Sununu, in a closely watched rematch that could help expand Democratic dominance on Capitol Hill, according to a new Boston Globe poll.

Shaheen, a former three-term governor, has the support of 49 percent of likely voters polled, compared with 36 percent for Sununu. Only 13 percent were undecided.

The Globe poll indicated that Democrats are also ahead in the races for governor and both House seats in the traditionally independent Granite State. The only bright news for Republicans is that former congressman Jeb Bradley is within striking distance of winning his seat back from US Representative Carol SheaPorter, who leads by 5 percentage points.

The state of the presidential race in New Hampshire will be reported in tomorrow's Globe.

The poll provides fresh evidence of the uphill battle that Republicans are facing nationally in the final days of the election, and demonstrates the toll that the economy and an unpopular president is tak ing on incumbent Republicans such as Sununu.

"The economic issues have spelled a lot of trouble for him," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the Globe poll. "Once the financial crisis hit, the markets seized up, and people's 401(k)s began to plummet, that's when Republicans got blamed. That was probably the turning point in the Sununu campaign."

In September, a poll conducted by the center indicated Sununu was trailing by just 4 points. But since then, the economy has cratered, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has surged to a strong lead in polls, and Shaheen and Sununu have barraged voters with a nearly continuous onslaught of television attack ads. As of Sept. 30, the candidates had poured a total of more than $8 million into the race since the beginning of 2007.

The Globe survey of 725 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 22, has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

The survey found that US Representative Paul Hodes, the Democratic incumbent, held a lead of 51 percent to 25 percent among those polled in the race against Republican challenger Jennifer Horn, a 44-year-old mother of five who has been dubbed "the Sarah Palin of New Hampshire."

Governor John Lynch also appears to be headed toward an easy reelection, leading state Senator Joe Kenney by 50 percentage points - 67 percent to 17 percent. The Democratic incumbent even leads among Republican voters polled by 5 points.

The US Senate race has been one of the most closely watched campaigns in the country, with two deeply experienced politicians facing off in a rematch of a 2002 contest that ended with Election Day chicanery and two GOP operatives in jail over a phone-jamming scandal.

For Democrats, who are waging competitive campaigns even in deep-red states such as Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky, the race in New Hampshire represents a prime opportunity to pick up a Senate seat from a Republican incumbent.

According to the Globe poll, Shaheen appears to be gaining ground in nearly every category after her 4-point defeat to Sununu six years ago.

She is leading in every income level and in every age group but those 65 and older. She also leads everywhere in the state except for the more conservative areas on the Massachusetts border, where Sununu has a 2-point advantage.

Sununu's strongest support came from Republicans, abortion opponents, and regular churchgoers.

The first-term senator had tightened the race over the summer, cutting Shaheen's lead from 12 percentage points in April to 4 points in July, according to polls conducted by the center. In addition to the attack ads, the candidates have held numerous debates in which they have squabbled over the economy, clean energy, and healthcare.

"I think John Sununu has been a little bit too much in bed with our friends in the White House," said Jack Calhoun, a 53-year-old Republican from Harrisville who plans to vote for Shaheen. "I'm willing to give Jeanne Shaheen the nod. But I'm holding my nose; let's put it that way."

Calhoun said he's not overly impressed with Shaheen, but has been disappointed with Sununu's lack of leadership on the economy.

"He can say he's done this or that, but quite honestly it was on his watch, and his party's watch," Calhoun said. "I'm a registered Republican but I'm not so dyed-in-the-wool that I'm going to let the electorate walk the plank for the party. [Shaheen] is the coincidental beneficiary of that. I'm not sure it's because she's articulating a particularly brilliant strategy."

Shaheen, whose campaign theme is "A New Direction," has been running as an agent of change who can reform Washington and is trying to tie Sununu to the unpopular policies of President Bush.

She has seized on the economy and people's fears about the financial collapse, running televised ads criticizing Sununu's support for a partial privatization of Social Security.

Sununu, who at 44 is the youngest member of the Senate, has countered that Shaheen is a poll-watching leaf in the wind who has displayed a dangerous lack of judgment and will vote to raise taxes.

He has been running as an independent-minded politician who has been willing to challenge his party.

Of the two congressional districts in New Hampshire, only one appears to be competitive, the First District in the southern part of the state.

In 2006, Shea-Porter, who had never held elected office, pulled off a shocking upset when she defeated Bradley by nearly 3 points in the only New England congressional district that voted for Bush in 2004.

This year, Shea-Porter has been seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats, and over the last six months has been trailing in recent polls by as much as 6 points.

The new Globe poll indicates that she has taken a 44-to-39 percent lead. There are 14 percent who are undecided.

If Democrats sweep the elections next month, it would cement a shift that New Hampshire began in 2004 when it was the only state in the country to reverse its support of Bush.

In 2006, New Hampshire elected a Democratic governor by the widest margin in state history; two moderate incumbent Republican congressmen were defeated; and for the first time since 1874, Democrats took control of both houses in the state Legislature.

In the Globe poll, 45 percent of responding likely voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their state Senate race, compared with 30 percent who plan to vote for the Republican candidate.

A third of the New Hampshire electorate has changed in the last eight years, and new voters are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, according to a study released this month by the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

Statewide, voter registration has also eroded for Republicans. In 2002, the last time Sununu and Shaheen faced off, Republicans had an 11-point lead in registered voters. Now, both parties have about 31 percent of the electorate.

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.