Coming cuts in state aid worry towns

Some will suffer more, as help reliance varies

When the budget hatchet falls next year, not all the cuts will be equal.

Legislative leaders have warned communities that hefty cutbacks in state aid are coming, leading to plenty of doom-and-gloom talk among town officials. Though the exact amounts haven't been determined, the impact is certain to vary widely, striking some communities much harder than others.

"There will be winners and losers, and it will be very complicated trying to figure it out for a given community" because of the convoluted formulas used to determine aid, said Michael J. Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, a nonprofit budget watchdog.

Making it more difficult is that the amount of aid communities receive differs tremendously - about half of Brockton's budget comes from state aid, while communities such as Duxbury, Cohasset, and Marion receive less than 10 percent, based on figures for the fiscal year ended last June 30, the most complete available.

Some cautioned that it was speculative to talk about the impact now.

"It's early in the process and there's a lot uncertainty," said Geoffrey C. Beckwith, executive director of the Massachusetts Municipal Association. "We're in the pre-season." The first clear indication of the size of the problem will be when the governor files his budget in January, he said.

But that hasn't stopped local officials from worrying early, especially since Speaker of the House Salvatore DiMasi said last week that local aid might be sliced up to 10 percent because of dropping state revenues. But he hasn't said how the cuts would be distributed.

Cuts of 10 percent "will be completely devastating," said James E. Harrington, mayor of Brockton, where 30 people were laid off the past year. The city has also left many positions unfilled, including about 25 in the Fire Department and 10 or 12 in the Police Department.

Harrington's comments were echoed by others.

"We have old schools, beat-up streets, and beat-up municipal buildings," said Allan R. Chiocca, town administrator in Rockland. The town "is not one of the wealthier communities and a cut of that size would absolutely hammer us." He criticized the state for requiring towns to provide more services, but not giving them the money to do it.

For instance, the state told the town that a dam built under a state road, Route 123, belonged to the town, Chiocca said. A year later, the state said the town needed to fix it, he said, at an estimated cost of $100,000. If the town doesn't repair the dam, it faces fines of $500 a day, Chiocca said.

David C. Murphy, the executive secretary in Randolph, said a tax override allowed the community to hire police and teachers, giving residents a sense of momentum. To have cutbacks now would be sending the wrong message, he said.

Determining how much aid a community might get from the state is not easy. According to the state Department of Revenue's "Cherry Sheet Manual," funds are allocated through complicated formulas that take into account such factors as property values and income, based on state tax returns.

For instance, the formula used to determine Chapter 70 money, a major budget item that goes to schools, reflects district enrollment, inflation, and geographic differences in wages.

It sets a "foundation budget," which is a minimum amount that should be spent per pupil, then looks at a community's ability to pay to determine how much of the money should come from the town and how much from the state.

Because of the worsening economy and stock market, Widmer of Mass Taxpayers was pessimistic about the state's chances of keeping state aid cuts to 10 percent.

"If we pass a balanced budget with only a 10 percent cut, I think that that would be a remarkable achievement," he said. He predicts hard times lie ahead.

"We're going to see massive layoffs in local government. It is inevitable," said Widmer. "The only question is how massive will they be."

Matt Carroll can be reached at mcarroll@globe.com.