Poll: Obama failing to move evangelicals

John C. Green (left), the University of Akron political scientist who is the nation's most prominent scholar of how religious affiliation affects voting behavior, is just releasing new survey data showing that, even before John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, Barack Obama was failing to move evangelicals into his camp.
Green, releasing initial results of his quadrennial survey of religion and politics at the annual convention of the Religion Newswriters Association, said the most surprising result of his survey was how little had changed since 2004.
"The divisions based on religious affiliation are very deep-seated in the United States, and they are very difficult to change,'' Green said. "It may well be that, if these patterns were to persist, the results would look very similar to 2004, with the high degree of religious polarization.''
A few highlights from Green's study, which was conducted over the summer, before the vice-presidential nominees were chosen and before the national political conventions:
* Evangelicals were supporting McCain at nearly the same rate as they were supporting George W. Bush at the same time four years ago, despite Obama's outreach efforts to evangelicals, and despite the fact that McCain does not share the strong personal connection to evangelicalism that Bush expresses. Green said that evangelical Protestants favored McCain over Obama by 57.2 percent to 19.9 percent.
* Mainline Protestants and non-Hispanic Catholics were divided, but leaning slightly toward McCain.
* Obama was doing best among African-American Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Hispanic Protestants, and the religiously unaffiliated. Latino Protestants are one of the groups experiencing the most political change, favoring Bush in the summer of 2004 and Obama in the summer of 2008.
* There has been a slight shift toward more liberal positions on same sex marriage and stem cell research among many religious groups.
Green cautioned that it is still early in the campaign, and that the dynamic could yet shift.
(Photo by the University of Akron.)



Just wondering if the key to winning over evangelical voters -- even younger ones -- is abortion. that's what jay sekulow suggested at lunch, i think. gerson said on friday that he felt obama's convention speech offered no opening on that issue.
That Latino Protestant shift was one of the things I found most interesting-- from John's sheet, it looks like 49.5% supported Bush in 2004 and 48.4% support Obama now, so this is a dramatic flip. I'll be curious to see if a huge Latino vote for Obama will prove to be incentive to make comprehensive immigration reform a higher priority after the election than it seems now.
Oh, and to religionwriter.com, I think that talk of abortion reduction and common ground strategies could be a really productive way for Obama to move evangelicals. He pointed to it in the convention speech (unlike what Gerson thought!), but hasn't followed through with his ads or stump speeches.
The key is to use the environmental issues. Many evangelicals are sold on that "God created earth" movement. And Palin has a terrible environmental record.
KRISTIN
Do you believe the only way to get the Latino vote is to give amnesty to people that broke the law. I hope Americans of Latin descent believe in the American rule of law, and understand we are a sovereign nation with borders.
Also, in the eighties we had a so called immigration reform bill that never accomplished its goal. And do you understand the impact that bill would have had on this country socially and economically. The fact is that illegal immigrants and their families cost the American taxpayer over three hundred and forty six billion dollars last year. More than twice as much as the Iraq war! If we give amnesty to twenty million illegal immigrants and then allow them to sponsor family members we will have almost 40 percent of our population in need of some type government assistance. That's fact, so please don't resort to name calling. It would negatively impact almost every Americans way of life, not to mention our tax rate. I wish people would talk about immigration in an open and honest way without the name calling. Our immigration policies are the most generous in the world. I want people that respect our laws and understand that we can't absorb all of the worlds poor without becoming one ourselves.
While puttering purposefully around my Facebook page, I noticed that there is a new Christian group that endorses Barack Obama. I am heartened to see more people turning toward truth and beauty as this presidential campaign struggle comes to the heated last few weeks. "Goodness" is the message, don't you think, whether you're a practicing worshipper or just have a good heart. Wasn't that Jesus' teaching?
I don't understand why it always has to be so "by the book," if you'll pardon me, so one side or the other, all or nothing. So McCain's camp is somehow more Godly than Obama's? God loves McCain's people more than Obama's people? That's preposterous! Aren't you then choosing the glass houses at which you are about to throw stones?
What makes America so great is that we are free to worship as we will in peace and freedom. You can do that equally well whether you're a Democrat or a Republican. Our values are our own but to lump it all to one side or the other without consideration of the whole is limiting and selfish at best.
"Goodness" is something we should all strive for in our deeds and our thoughts, regardless of our church or political affiliations.
http://www.matthew25.org/paf/index.htm
"Therefore, having put away falsehood, let each one of you speak the truth with his neighbor, for we are all of the same body."
Ephesians 4:25
Well of course evangelicals are favoring Mccain over Obama that's like releasing a poll showing African Americans favoring Obama. I don't think there's much Obama can do now to move evangelical voters, especially after his "way above my paygrade" response to the abortion question. Evangelicals are pretty strong on their faith and I don't think they'll change their mind over ethical issues like abortion, stem cells, and gay marriage.
Julia thinks people are turning toward truth and beauty and that's why they're supporting Barack. Another voter that knows nothing about the candidates.
Barack is one of the sleaziest politicians in recent history, but his true political life has been overlooked because of the main stream media's infatuation with him.
I support Obama and I am GLAD he is not attracting evangelicals, because I don't want evangelicals influencing the White House, foreign policy, domestic policy, or any other policy. We best win without them.
Bible banging evangelicalism is a cult where everyone who joins is given a Phd in theology for dipping their heads in water and accepting Jesus. As a person who attended serious Catholic schools without drinking any Catholic koolaid I can tell you there is highly educated Christianity without the gross misstep of confusing yourself into thinking the Bible is anything but a book. I don't know when people are going to stand up to this evangelical force that plagues our country these days bit it had better be soon forall our sakes.
What about Kerry Kennedys statistic that there were fewer abortions during recent Democratic administrations than Republicfan ones?
Obama should worry more about his polling in New York and other blue states and less about religeous folks. NO Democrat has done as poorly in New York and certain other blue states as Obama.
There is something very wrong when a Democrat congress is polling single digits and the Democrat presidential candidate is having trouble with New York....
All the Republicans have to do is start airing jeremiah Wright tapes with photos of Obama and Wright grinning out at them to scare white people away from Obama.
Democrats are too comfortable with the positive headlines of an amiable Democrat media. There are many ominous signs for Democrats to be so smug....
I'm an Atheist, so I don't have a vested interest in who the evangelicals think will support their superstition. I will advise them, however, that any group who blindly sides with the Republicans while the GOP is still practicing Karl Rove politics, will run the risk of having their own agenda minimalized (sp) by the ever growing Republican failures around the country. Christians could do themselves a world of good by gravitating to the common-sense practices of the Democratic party.
"Bible banging evangelicalism is a cult ...that plagues our country...we best win without them"
That sounds just like what Obama said in an unguarded moment...
"bitter people clinging to guns and religion.."
CK, thanks for being honest, unlike other phony liberals.......You smartass atheists will soon be running the country and mocking those who believe in God...
"David" and "Bob",
You guys are the definition of "the angry right". Everyone gets that you're unhappy. You'll never win anyone over because you can't seem to make your point without slamming the person you disagree with.
The plague of this throughout the Evangelical and Republican groups is what turns off so many "liberals" to the various "conservative" movements. It isn't to say that all conservatives or Evangelicals are angry, but rather that many of the supposed spokespeople seem so intent on villifying those who disagree with them simply because they disagree.
There are plenty of conservative, religious and Republican people who recognize the value of discussion of the merits of the issues. Unfortunately, you two are not among them.
Unfortunately racism extends deep into religious entities. Division and discrimination are one thing most churches have in common.
No one loves Jesus like we do is repeated over and over in sermons! All to keep the ranks and coffers full if possible.
Racism is subtle in churches, but it is part of the glue which holds a lot of congregations together, not just Jesus.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
Blogger
E-mail mpaulson@globe.com.
Articles of Faith on Twitter
views
featured comments
Faith-based gardening: A rose for the popebrowse this blog
by categoryEVENTS
CAUSES
BLOGROLL
Headlines
Media blogs
Media criticism
Politics
Catholicism
Episcopalianism
Evangelicalism
Islam
Judaism
Mormonism
Unitarian Universalism
ALSO OF INTEREST
From our archives
Ma Siss's Place
Benedict visits the US
O'Malley's elevation
The new pope
Pope John Paul II
Parish closings
Catholic church abuse
INside Boston.com