Forecasters growing more confident about a warm winter

(Joanne Rathe/Globe Staff)

What would be nice to avoid -- James Curley cleared a walk in Arlington in one of the few snows last winter. Forecasters say that storms could still come, despite generally warmer weather.

By Martin Finucane, Globe Staff

Federal climate prediction experts have good news for people concerned about their heating bills as cold weather approaches, predicting above-average temperatures this winter for much of the country, including most of New England.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued its final forecast for the months of December, January, and February.

"We still favor above-normal temperatures this winter in much of the Northeast other than Maine," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the center.

Earlier this week, forecasters from AccuWeather.com, the commercial weather forecasting service, went further, saying the signs were pointing to this winter being one of the warmest on record.

The winter will be "warmer than normal, warmer than last winter, and overall a more consumer-friendly winter for those buying fuel and gas," the company's chief long-range forecaster, Joe Bastardi, said in a statement.

Accuweather.com forecasters a month ago predicted that winter temperatures in Southern New England would average 2 to 3.5 degrees above normal. (Last winter, the temperatures averaged 1.7 degrees above normal.) They said this week their confidence in the balmy forecast was growing.

"Everything seems to be running according to what we expected," said Ken Reeves, director of forecasting at the company.

The commercial forecasters have predicted a relative cold spell during November, then a warmup in late December, and warmer than usual temperatures until the middle part of February or even until March.

There is a "sizable chunk of the United States east of the Rockies that's going to have an unbelievably warm January," Reeves said.

The forecasters emphasized that the numbers are averages and that individual cold days and snowstorms could still happen.

• Comment
• Permalink
• Email