Exit polls: Younger voters played a big role in Mass. races

November 4, 2008 09:58 PM Email| Comments (0)| Text size – +

By Frank Phillips, Globe Staff

On two of the biggest questions facing Massachusetts in this election, younger voters played a big role, according to exit polls.

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama ran up huge margins among those voters under 30 in Massachusetts, while those over 45 were far less enamored with the Democratic nominee, splitting their ballots between him and Republican John McCain.

Voters under 30 -- along with liberals and college-educated and middle-income voters -- also were key to the wide margin that opponents racked up in defeating the ballot initiative that would have eliminated the state's income tax.

Those are the conclusions of interviews with voters, who, after casting their ballots today, were contacted by a national survey company, Edison/Mitofksy, which performed state-by-state exit polling for the national media.

The survey of 743 Massachusetts voters showed that Obama won 75 percent of those under 30, and McCain only received 21 percent of that age group's vote. Among those between 30 and 44, Obama outpolled McCain, 58 percent to 36 percent. But the Arizona senator ran closer among those 45 and over, 47 percent to Obama's 54 percent.

Jeffrey Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University, said the exit polls here in Massachusetts and New Hampshire reflect serious problems for the Republicans in the future. He said new, young voters tend to stick with their original affiliations for some years to come.

''Voters don't flip back and forth,'' said Berry. ''The trend in Massachusetts is part of a larger trend where young new voters were inspired by Obama while turned off by the last Bush administration.''

Income levels also played an important role in the breakdown of Bay State voter preferences in the presidential race. McCain edged out Obama 49 to 44 percent among those making more than $100,000 a year. But Obama beat McCain by an almost 3-to-1 margin among those making less than $50,000 annually. Those making less than $100,000 went heavily for Obama, 64 to 30 percent.

How the issue of race played in the Massachusetts results is not entirely clear from the exit polling because the sample of the African-American voters in Massachusetts was too small to examine.

Looking at the responses from white voters, Obama ran significantly better among white women, getting 60 percent of their vote to McCain's 36 percent. Among white men, 50 percent of white male voters backed the Democrat, while 48 percent voted for McCain.

US Senator John F. Kerry, seeking his fifth term, also scored heavily among young voters in defeating Republican challenger Jeff Beatty, getting 80 percent of their vote.

Beatty did best among those making more than $100,000, winning 39 percent of those voters compared with Kerry's 60 percent. Kerry won 71 percent of those making less than $100,000, and got 60 percent of those making more than $100,000 a year.

Obama's strong win in New Hampshire came from his popularity among women in that state. The exit polls showed that, among 2,203 voters surveyed, 63 percent of the female vote went to the Democrat, but 52 percent of the men casting ballots voted for him. McCain beat Obama handily among those who decided at the last minute on their presidential vote in the Granite State. Some 53 percent broke yesterday for the Republican nominee while 44 percent went for Obama.

According to the 737 interviews of those who voted on the Massachusetts income tax question, 70 percent of those between 18 and 29 voted to reject the proposal and 30 percent approved it.

Voters in the middle age bracket were more inclined to repeal the income tax. Among those between 30 and 44 years old, 44 percent registered approval. But older voters were stronger in their objections, with a margin of 61 to 39 voting against the measure.

Berry said the proponents pushing the income tax cut reached too far by trying to completely eliminate the tax, losing some key constituents, including the influential and well-funded business community. Wiping out the tax completely would have cost the state about $12 billion in revenues, opponents said, an argument they were able to use effectively against the measure.

''The key factor in its defeat was that the proposition was too radical and went too far,'' Berry said. ''Governor Patrick and his liberal allies in the Legislature were lucky because a less radical measure would likely have passed.''