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Snowfall prediction: Below average this winter

E-mail|Link|Comments () November 26, 2009 01:53 PM

By Stephanie Ebbert, Globe Staff

This may not be the season for snow, if Bob Pannuto predicted right again.

The retired National Weather Service meteorologist has studied Boston's autumn temperatures dating back to the 1870s and correlated them with seasonal snowfall averages.

Mild temperatures in October or November often usher in a winter with less-than-average snowfall, according to Pannuto.

Though October was chilly this year, temperatures this month have been about 3 degrees above normal, he said today. Taking both months into consideration, Pannuto's snowfall study predicts a 64 percent probability of below-normal snowfall for Boston this winter -- or less than the average 42 inches.

"A warm November bodes well for a less than normal snowfall," Pannuto said.

Pannuto, who is now an assistant professor at Bridgewater State College, has been tracking the correlation for years. In 1978, the National Weather Digest published his paper called "A Climatic Relationship between Boston's Fall Temperature and Its Winter Snowfall," tracking the fall temperatures and winter snowfall for the past century.

He has often -- though not always -- been right, but he has been correct since 2000, when heavy snowfall followed November temperatures that were 1.2 degrees colder than normal and October was .8 degrees colder than normal. He noted that he is identifying climatic relationships, not prediciting odds with any certainty.

"I’ve been right," he said, "a lot more than wrong."