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Who's really ahead in the governor's race?

Print | Comments () Posted by David Jrolf October 28, 2010 09:05 AM

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By Globe Staff

With the election looming on the horizon on Tuesday, a new poll shows Democratic Governor Deval Patrick is holding on to a seven-point lead over Republican Charles D. Baker in the race for governor.

Polls can be wrong, late surges are possible (just ask US Senator Scott Brown) and the candidacies of independent Timothy Cahill and Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein remain wild cards. But the Suffolk University/7 News poll is the latest in a series of polls in recent weeks that have shown Patrick with an edge.

The new poll found that Patrick leads Baker, 46 percent to 39 percent, with independent candidate Timothy P. Cahill at 9 percent and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.

The new poll results were almost exactly the same as the Suffolk pollsters found two weeks ago.

"There have been shifts under the surface even though Deval Patrick continues to lead," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. "Since our last poll, Baker gained ground among younger voters but lost some among middle-age voters; Baker improved in Suffolk County but lost some of his lead in Southeastern Mass; and Baker gained further among men, but lost further among women."

The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Other recent polls giving Patrick the lead:

-- A Globe poll released Sunday found Patrick with a slim lead, with 43 percent compared with Baker's 39 percent. The survey of 519 likely voters taken Oct. 17-22 had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

-- A Rasmussen Reports poll found Patrick with 47 percent, compared with Baker's 42 percent. The survey of 750 likely voters taken Oct. 16 had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

-- A Western New England College poll found Patrick with 44 percent, compared with Baker's 36 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 17-21 had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

-- The last Suffolk University/Channel 7 poll found Patrick with 46 percent, compared with Baker's 39 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 10-12 had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Polling experts say that when different polls agree it adds to the overall credibility of the result, reducing the possibility that bias inherent in one poll might lead to skewed findings.

But only one poll, the latest Suffolk poll, has taken the temperature of voters so far this week. And if supporters of Cahill and/or Stein defected to one of the frontrunners, it could well throw the election to them.

Asked who had the best temperament to be governor, 46 percent of respondents in the latest Suffolk poll said Patrick, compared with 22 percent for Baker, and 7 percent for Cahill. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they believed Patrick would win, compared with 25 percent who predicted Baker would. Voters were evenly split when asked to rate Patrick's job performance.

The Suffolk poll also found that the races for treasurer and auditor remain neck-and-neck between the Republican and Democratic candidates, and that Attorney General Martha Coakley and Secretary of State William F. Galvin enjoy wide leads over their challengers.

A majority of voters, 51 percent, said they opposed a controversial ballot question that would cut the state sales tax rate from 6.25 percent to 3 percent, with 39 percent saying they supported it.