Connecticut seen as bellwether in election
NEW HAVEN, Conn. --Presidents and other political candidates have long come to Connecticut for cash, but this election season they can find much more in this small wealthy state.
The mood of the country.
"A lot of observers are looking at us as a bellwether for the nation," said Quinnipiac University Poll director Douglas Schwartz. "We're getting more attention than I can ever remember."
Trying to get a handle on the election, a well-connected delegation from the Christian Democratic Union in Germany arrived Friday in Connecticut for a briefing, said Gary Rose, a political science professor at Sacred Heart University.
It all began with Ned Lamont, a wealthy Greenwich businessman who upset Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the Democratic primary in August in a race widely seen as a referendum on Iraq and a rejection of Lieberman's pro-war views. Now running as an independent, Lieberman has pulled ahead of Lamont in the polls.
But three Republican members of Congress who supported the war -- Reps. Christopher Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons -- are in danger of losing their seats. Polls show them virtually tied with their anti-war Democratic challengers.
Those races play an important role in determining the balance of power in Congress and the course of the war. Democrats need to gain 15 House seats to regain a majority.
The fate of the moderate wing of the Republican party also hangs in the balance. Connecticut's Republican members of Congress have long bucked their party on issues such as campaign finance reform, stem cell research, abortion rights and the minimum wage.
"If they go down, then the moderate voice within the Republican party is for all intents and purposes over for the foreseeable future," Rose said. "The polarization will be even more intense than it is."
With 86,000 new voters registered in Connecticut since May, state officials expect a voter turnout of about 65 percent, a near-record for a non-presidential election.
"I think there is a very strong interest in this election," said Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. "The world is watching our U.S. Senate race. The nation is watching our three hotly contested Congressional races."
Bysiewicz said her office is ready for a recount if necessary. Both parties are stepping up their monitoring of the results.
Candidates have long visited Connecticut's Gold Coast for fundraisers, but the state is typically ignored in presidential races because it's seen as a reliable blue state that will vote Democratic, Schwartz said. And its small size means few electoral votes.
This time national parties have poured millions of dollars into the races, resulting in an avalanche of negative television commercials and increasingly bitter races. Democrats have tried to tie the incumbents to the war and President Bush, while the Republicans have emphasized their independence.
But the close Congressional races show another side to Connecticut -- its Yankee independent streak. Unaffiliated voters make up 44 percent of the state's 1.9 million eligible voters, compared to 35 percent for Democrats and 22 percent Republicans.
"I don't think we're a blue state. I think we are an independent state," said Ken Dautrich, a University of Connecticut public policy professor. "Connecticut, particularly those three Congressional districts, are highly independent and they're much more subject to the winds of change."
