Shays fights to keep 'endangered' GOP New England base
New England's lone House Republican is mounting what could be the GOP's last stand.
US Representative Christopher Shays, of Connecticut, the last remaining Republican representing New England in the US House, is fighting for his political life against a rising Democratic challenger and a backdrop of generalized voter anger and uncertainty.
A poll conducted for Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, last week found Shays trailing Democrat Jim Himes 48 to 45 percent. While that is less than the margin of error of 4 points, the SurveyUSA poll seemed to show movement from a poll conducted in late September by Sacred Heart University that found Shays up by 10 percent, with 29 percent undecided.
The danger is not lost on Shays, a 21-year veteran of Congress who, in last week's debates, began calling himself "an endangered species." It is also giving chills to some New England Republicans confronting the notion of losing their foothold in the House.
"Chris Shays has been a great congressman for his district. It would be a shame if he got tossed out with the bath water," said William C. Sawyer, president of the New England Republican Council, which is trying to strengthen the party regionally with conferences on issues. "But you know, there's been such a tidal wave of unhappiness with the party that it's difficult for a good guy like Chris Shays to withstand it. But I have every confidence that he will."
On the campaign trail, Shays, like other Republicans, has distanced himself from President Bush and emphasized his experience and his willingness to cross party lines. "I am independent, I am bipartisan, and I am effective," he said at a debate yesterday at Temple Israel in Westport.
"Democrats say they care about endangered species," Shays told the predominantly Democratic crowd. "I am the only Republican [congressman] left in Connecticut, the only one in all of New England. If you want to protect an endangered species, I'm it!"
Yankee Republicans - fiscally conservative, socially moderate - no longer fit the mold of the modern GOP, which sowed new roots in the South and West and in more conservative, religious soil.
"The problem the Republicans have been having in recent decades is an inability to mobilize their base," said Howard Reiter, a professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. "That's a Northeastern phenomenon. If you go out to the Midwest or far West, Republicans are just as able to mobilize their base."
Connecticut Republicans believe Shays's reputation as an independent, moderate Republican will help him hang on through the anti-Bush wave.
"He's not a creature of Washington. I think in this particular environment, that's very helpful," said Chris Healy chairman of the Connecticut Republican Party. "He has been right on the issues for the Fourth District, particularly on the rescue plan of Wall Street, of which thousands of his constituents make their living working in."
With a Congressional profile in line with that of Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate - as a bipartisan reformer of campaign finance and a sometime renegade - Shays, 63, has been promoting his centrism so assiduously that one of his ads even features Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee.
"The hopefulness of Obama. The straight talk of McCain. It's what Christopher Shays has always stood for," proclaims one Shays ad. "He goes where the truth takes him, never afraid to take a stand or oppose his own party. In a sea of partisanship, Shays is different. It's not what is Republican or Democrat. It's what is right for America."
But nationally, the Democrats view Shays's seat as ripe for the plucking. It is one of eight Republican Congressional seats where voters backed Senator John F. Kerry, a Democrat, for president in 2004. And last week's SurveyUSA poll found Obama leading McCain in the district 59 to 37 percent.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent nearly $800,000 on hard-hitting ads, including those showing Shays walking in step with President Bush. In 2006, the committee spent more than $1.6 million trying to oust Shays. But that year, when four other New England Republicans lost their House seats to Democrats, Shays narrowly fended off Democrat Diane Farrell, whose campaign focused on Shays's vote to support the war in Iraq.
Now, he is bucking the Democratic tide in a vote Himes wants to make a referendum on the economy. The Fourth Congressional District includes some of the richest towns in the country - populated by Wall Street commuters and financial analysts - as well as cities like Bridgeport, where minority voters are expected to turn out strong for Obama.
"Chris Shays is facing just as much voter anger over the economy as he was over the war two years ago. So this is a test for him of whether he can neutralize that anger by election day," said David Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report.
Himes is a former
In recent weeks, Himes, 42, has hammered Shays, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, over the nation's economic turmoil. He has run ads criticizing Shays for denouncing regulation and for his Sept. 1 statement, "Our economy is fundamentally strong." (Himes began attacking him on that point immediately thereafter, while McCain was attacked for his similar statements two weeks later amid the financial crisis.)
"Jim will continue to point out that Chris Shays has been wrong on the two biggest issues of our time - the economy and the war," said spokesman Michael Sachse , Himes's communications director.
Himes has raised $2.1 million through July, nearly keeping pace with Shays's $2.3 million.
Though Shays is an independent-minded Republican - who cites a Congressional Quarterly analysis showing that he voted with his party just 65 percent over the past four years - some political observers believe he could be tagged as a Bush Republican.
"This is a very Democratic district. Undecided voters tend to break against incumbents," said Wasserman, noting the September poll that showed 29 percent of voters still undecided. "If you are under 50 percent of the vote in a heavily Democratic district and you are a Republican of any species, you are in trouble this year."
Party loyalists say much would be lost if Shays should tumble.
"What do they say about power corrupts?" asked Sawyer. "I think we need a two-party system - not that Chris Shays by himself represents a separate party, but his disappearance would represent, I think, something of a crisis in the way we manage our affairs here in this region."
Globe correspondent Gregory B. Hladky contributed to this report.
Stephanie Ebbert can be reached at ebbert@globe.com. 