Maine's GOP senators may control the moderate middle

Maine's Republican senators, Susan Collins (above) and Olympia Snowe, have indicated a willingness to seek common ground with Democrats on elements of Barack Obama's agenda such as energy and healthcare. (Alex Wong/ Getty Images/ File 2007)

WASHINGTON - For years, Maine senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins have been treated as conjoined political twins: a pair of moderate Republican women, often ideologically indistinguishable, ready to move as a unit whenever deals are being cut in the Senate's center.

When the chamber convenes next month under strengthened Democratic control, the duo from Maine will emerge as a likely balance of power on major legislation as Senate majority leader Harry Reid struggles to corral the 60 votes necessary to end a minority filibuster.

"They'll be knocking at the door of Collins and Snowe quite frequently," said Ross Baker, a Rutgers University political scientist who served earlier this year as a scholar-in-residence in Reid's office.

In interviews last week, both Snowe and Collins volunteered themselves as bridges between the two parties, suggesting a willingness to find common ground on some of the elements of Barack Obama's agenda that could prove the most contentious, including economic stimulus, energy, and healthcare. Each senator said separately that Obama's campaign-year rhetoric about the need for consensus-building appears to open new possibilities for them to lead in a bipartisan fashion.

"I sense that President-elect Obama is truly genuine and forthright about getting to work across the aisle," Snowe said. "The White House and administration have not been bringing people into the process. . . . If you're not willing to take the risk of working across the political aisle, you lose the chance to do major things for the country."

Others agree that it could be, as Snowe suggests, a climate-changing moment for Beltway moderates.

"The Bush administration's way of dealing with them was 'my way or the highway,' " said Christian Potholm, a Maine political consultant and Bowdoin College government professor. "I get the sense that with Obama, wherever he comes down on policy, that won't be his operating style: It's going to be a more open, more fluid dynamic. To that extent, they may be more important now than under the last administration."

Democrats will begin the session with 58 or 59 members in their caucus, depending on the results of an unresolved, and still contentious, recount in Minnesota. Before recessing until Monday, the panel put Democrat Al Franken's lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman at a couple hundred votes with disputed ballots still outstanding, the Minneapolis Star Tribune said.

Democratic leaders will often need at least one Republican to bring legislation to a vote.

Both Snowe and Collins said they had been meeting with Obama's future Cabinet secretaries and White House aides to discuss their legislative priorities. Collins said that she recognized overlapping interests with Obama on healthcare and climate-change issues, based on conversations with Peter Orszag, the congressional-budget adviser whom Obama has named to run his Office of Management and Budget.

"I'm convinced by discussions I've had with the new OMB director and the vice-president-elect that the administration is going to tackle healthcare reform," Collins said. "I think the outlines of his plans are something I could work with."

Snowe said she wants to use her post as a senior member of the Finance Committee to help craft the stimulus package that Obama has indicated will be his leading legislative priority when he takes office.

"I'm prepared to play that role in order to focus on solutions," Snowe said. "The only way I know how to get things done is sitting down and working through the issues."

The two are the most liberal Republicans in the chamber, according to ideological ratings developed by the National Journal based on 2007 votes. ("You have to be almost a political theologian to figure out the differences" between the two ideologically, said Baker.) They have played a crucial role in past Senate compromises, including the "Gang of 14" compromise over judicial appointments in 2005.

Snowe and Collins joined the majority of Democrats to support a recent auto-industry bailout backed by both Obama and President Bush. In that vote, they stood alongside two other Northern Republican moderates, Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter and Ohio's George Voinovich. They, too, are likely to also be targets of Reid efforts, although both are up for reelection in 2010 and potentially vulnerable to conservative primary challenges that could make them more wary of cross-party alliances.

Snowe and Collins are overwhelmingly popular in a state that has long rewarded centrists of both parties. This fall, amid national difficulties for Republicans, Collins was reelected against Congressman Tom Allen, a liberal challenger who did little to unsettle the incumbent's broad base of support. She ended up winning by 23 points, an even larger margin than Obama's in the state.

As Democrats work to assemble a coalition capable of breaking a filibuster, Reid - along with future vice president Joe Biden and chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, both experienced Capitol Hill negotiators - will have to weigh when it is best to approach persuadable Republicans and wavering Democrats with a carrot (support for pet causes) or a stick (threats of political retribution).

"I don't think you need to use a very big stick on them. . . . If the Democrats need Collins and Snowe on something, they will be able to activate strong Democratic interest-group pressure in Maine," Baker said. "If there are important issues and Obama needs the votes, I don't think you're going to see them standing up as obstructionists."

The circumstances, however, offer Maine's senators particular leverage in the coming session, which Collins said she would use to help wrest Pentagon shipbuilding contracts for Bath Iron Works.

"I think there is an opportunity here to help shape many things to take account of the special needs of the state of Maine," Collins said.

For Collins and Snowe, the current situation mimics that of former Maine senator Margaret Chase Smith, who was far more effective under the Democratic administrations of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson than she was when a fellow Republican, Dwight Eisenhower, occupied the White House, according to Potholm.