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Suffolk casino would have to win big to meet estimates

The proposed casino and hotel at Suffolk Downs. Three-quarters of the casino’s revenue is expected to come from slots.
The proposed casino and hotel at Suffolk Downs. Three-quarters of the casino’s revenue is expected to come from slots.Credit: Wendy Maeda/Globe Staff

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Suffolk Downs would have to generate more gambling revenue than any other casino in the country — in the Western Hemisphere even — to reach the $1 billion mark city leaders are counting on under profit-sharing agreements, according to industry experts and a Globe analysis.

With three-quarters of the casino’s revenue expected to come from slot machines, the proposed 4,000 to 5,000 slots at a Caesars casino at Suffolk Downs would each have to average $400 to $500 in gambling revenue every day, under an industry formula for measuring slot performance. That would be an astronomical rate of profit surpassing the US slot king, Resorts World in New York City.

Also known as Aqueduct, Resorts World made $696 million on slots in the fiscal year ending in March, according to the New York State Gaming Commission. During that 12-month period, Resorts World averaged about $382 per day on about 5,000 slot machines, powered by an urban metro area more than four times as big as Boston.

In a more comparable metro region, Greater Baltimore and Washington DC, the 4,300 slot machines at the highly profitable Maryland Live! casino have averaged $292 in daily revenue this year, according to figures compiled by the University of Nevada Las Vegas Center for Gaming Research.

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