N.E. exodus raises economic concerns

The relatively small, but worrisome, exodus from Boston continues.

Suffolk County lost 1.5 percent of its residents between July 1, 2003, and July 1, 2004, the steepest decline of any county in southern New England and the third consecutive year the county's population dropped, according to US Census Bureau figures released yesterday.

The county's population has dropped 3.4 percent since the 2000 Census, again the largest population decline among Massachusetts counties. (Massachusetts was the only state in the nation to lose population in 2003-04.)

While some observers say Boston is positioned for faster economic growth, others say the dropping numbers represent a troubling trend, especially if young professionals are being driven away by high housing costs and the lack of promising jobs.

''We trade on the innovativeness of our population . . . so the fact that these data suggest that we're losing people is a cause for concern," said Michael Goodman, director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts. The institute serves as the state's lead census agency.

Some state officials and others dispute the numbers, saying they do not reflect the influx of immigrants coming to Boston or the college student population.

''Anyone who drives around the city of Boston or its neighborhoods knows these alleged numbers are not what's reflected," said Seth Gitell, spokesman for Mayor Thomas M. Menino, who has asked the Boston Redevelopment Authority to examine the numbers.

In the latest data, the population in Suffolk County -- which includes Boston, Winthrop, Revere, and Chelsea -- declined by 10,277 in the measured year.

The population in neighboring Middlesex County, which includes Cambridge and Lowell, dropped 0.1 percent with the loss of 1,933 residents.

Barnstable County on the Cape and Berkshire County in Western Massachusetts also saw population drops.

Dukes County, which includes Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket and Plymouth counties saw slight increases. Worcester County saw the largest growth in the state, with 3,716 new residents, or 0.5 percent.

The census numbers, important factors in federal funding and luring new jobs, have declined enough that Governor Mitt Romney's administration is trying to challenge the federal data.

The state inspector general, Gregory W. Sullivan, said the state is losing about $24 million in federal Medicaid and community development money because the 2000 Census missed 30,000 college students, plus recent immigrants and low-wage earners not filing income tax returns.

State officials have talked to the Donahue Institute about doing a separate state census or finding other ways to challenge the federal census numbers.

''We hope to come up with a system to provide more reliable data to the US Census Bureau, particularly with regard to students," said Shawn Feddeman, a spokeswoman for Romney.

Goodman, of the Donahue Institute, said the Census Bureau could be overstating the population losses because it is not counting residents of ''group quarters," such as nursing homes, prisons, homeless shelters, and college dorms.

The official count might also be missing recent immigrants, said Paul E. Harrington, an economist at Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies.

He said that annual figures between 1990 and 2000 showed populations dropping. But when immigration numbers were factored into the 2000 Census, Suffolk County and the region saw their numbers grow.

Globe correspondent Janette Neuwahl contributed to this report. Mac Daniel can be reached at mdaniel@globe.com.