Poll shows hurdles for Romney
Conservative stances hurting him in Mass.
Governor Mitt Romney's conservative stance on social issues is causing political trouble for him in Massachusetts, where a 60 percent majority of adults surveyed in a Boston Globe poll say they oppose his veto of an emergency contraception bill and 39 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his opposition to abortion.
As Romney weighs whether to forgo a reelection bid to prepare a run for president in 2008, the poll found that his chief Democratic rival for the governor's office, Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly, has continued to hold his lead over Romney. Reilly leads Romney by 51 to 38 percent in a matchup for a potential 2006 governor's race. In March, Reilly led 48 to 41 percent.
The survey of 503 adults, completed last week, found that 41 percent said Romney has accomplished little as governor, posing a challenge if he tries to promote himself on the presidential trail as an effective chief executive and political leader. Only 16 percent said he has accomplished ''a lot" and another 34 percent think he has been blocked by the Legislature.
The portion of adults who think he should be reelected remains at a precariously low level, with 30 percent saying he should be given a second term, and 51 percent saying someone else should be elected. That is statistically the same finding as in a Globe poll in March.
The poll found that Romney also would fare poorly in a potential GOP presidential primary in Massachusetts. Asked their choice if the GOP primary were held now, Republicans preferred both former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Senator John McCain of Arizona to Romney.
''There is nothing positive for him here in Massachusetts," said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. ''Since March, when our survey found him in political trouble, things have either stayed the same or have slipped," he said, noting that Republican politicians have little room for error in heavily Democratic Massachusetts. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Romney pledged to keep abortion ''safe and legal" in his 1994 race for US Senate, and in his 2002 race for governor said he would keep the state's abortion laws in place. But last month he said that his position had evolved and that he considered himself a ''prolife governor" who wished ''the laws of our nation could reflect that view." He vetoed a bill designed to expand access to emergency contraception, saying that in some cases the pill prevents fertilized eggs from developing and therefore, in his mind, destroys life. He also argued that the bill would violate his pledge to keep the state's abortion laws unchanged.
''I understand that my views on laws governing abortion set me squarely in the minority in our Commonwealth," Romney wrote in a recent op-ed piece in the Globe.
The change is widely perceived by politicians and pundits as an attempt to reach out to Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Romney has stressed conservative stances in speeches to GOP audiences around the country this year and said he is testing the waters for a White House run. He said he will announce this fall whether to run for reelection.
In the event Romney decides against a reelection bid, his lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, appears to be in a strong position for the GOP nomination for governor. Forty-four percent of those questioned had a favorable opinion of Healey, up 10 percentage points from the Globe's March poll, and the recent survey shows Healey beating Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charles D. Baker in a potential GOP primary matchup.
Among Democrats, the poll found Reilly led with 31 percent, Secretary of State William F. Galvin with 12 percent, and Deval Patrick, a former
The Globe poll also spelled trouble for US Senator John F. Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, in his home state. In a potential presidential primary, Kerry trails US Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, 33 to 21 percent, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Kerry's former running mate, John Edwards, was backed by 14 percent, and US Senator Joseph R. Biden of Delaware, by 11 percent.
A majority of those polled, 55 percent, said Romney should not run for president in 2008, and only 30 percent said he should. In March, 53 percent felt he should not run for president. In the recent poll, 44 percent said he is spending too much time running for president and only 38 percent say he is devoting enough time to being governor.
''He is focusing on his own personal agenda and his own political agenda and not on the Commonwealth's agenda," said Joseph Dawicki, 46, of Dartmouth, a respondent in the poll who was called later by the Globe to elaborate on his thinking. Dawicki, a Republican who voted for Romney in 2002, said he is upset over the governor's move to the right on social issues, enough so that he would not vote for him again.
''I am disappointed," Dawicki said. ''He has used weasel words, particularly on emergency contraception. He is not living up to his word, that he would run the state as a business and stay out of people's personal business."
In another sign of Romney's weakness, the poll found him almost even in a matchup with Patrick, a relatively unknown Democratic candidate, with the governor getting 41 percent and Patrick 37 percent.
Despite the concern about his stances, Romney's personal appeal has not been significantly hurt. The poll, taken Aug. 9 to 17, shows 49 percent have a favorable view of Romney and 39 percent unfavorable, a statistically insignificant dip since March, when he received a 52 percent favorable rating, 37 percent unfavorable.
His job approval rating is 50 percent, the same as it was in March, and 40 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his duties, close to the 37 percent who disapproved in March.
The poll found no one burning issue that voters seemed particularly concerned about. Many of the top issues cited as the most important problems facing the state are issues Romney has attempted to address with legislation or proposals -- taxes, the economy and unemployment, quality of education, and health insurance costs and availability.
''The fact that it is spread out means there is no big problem he can be blamed for," Smith said.
The poll found that support for abortion rights is particularly strong in Massachusetts, and many of those questioned said they detected a shift in Romney's stance. His move to a more conservative profile on abortion and emergency contraception has played poorly in Massachusetts.
Forty-five percent of those polled said abortion should be legal in all circumstances, compared with 24 percent of US residents who told Gallup in June that they support legalized abortion in all cases.
In the Globe poll, 60 percent disagreed with Romney's veto of an emergency contraception bill, while only 28 percent agreed with his position. Thirty-nine percent said they would be less likely to vote for Romney because of his stance on abortion. Only 10 percent said they would be more likely to vote for him, with 44 percent saying it makes little difference.
Thirty-three percent said he has taken a more antiabortion position since he has become governor, while 9 percent said he is more in favor of abortion rights.
Lee J. Fredette, a 46-year-old hospital employee and a respondent in the poll who lives in Southampton, said he has become increasingly ''irritated" with Romney over a number of issues, including his taking a more conservative position on abortion. Fredette, a registered independent, said he votes for both Democrats and Republicans and is a conservative who supports abortion rights. Romney, he said, is spending too much time looking to running for president and not focusing on his job.
''All I see out here is spending cuts in schools," Fredette said in an interview with the Globe. ''I've got potholes that can swallow my car. The bridges out here are in disrepair."
Burton Springer, a registered Republican from Wilbraham, said he strongly opposes Romney's position on abortion as well as the emergency contraception legislation. But he said he feels that the governor has done a good job for the Massachusetts economy and that he cannot be faulted for a lack of accomplishments. He lays the blame on the Democrat-controlled Legislature blocking his proposals.
''I wouldn't vote against the man just because he would not approve the emergency contraception bill," said Springer, 77, who was interviewed for the survey. ''There must be something as to why he is saying that. But if I walked up to the voting booth tomorrow, I would vote for Romney over Reilly."
Reilly's lead over Romney in a potential governor's race stems from the strong electoral advantage that Democrats have over Republicans in Massachusetts; last fall, Democrats made up 37 percent of registered voters, independents made up 49 percent, and Republicans made up 13 percent. The poll found that Romney held a commanding lead among Republicans and had a small margin over Reilly among independents. 