Sales start with bang, economic whimpers

(Correction: Because of technical difficulties, the continuation of a Page One story on holiday shopping in some editions of the Globe yesterday contained some paragraphs that were out of sequence.)

DANVERS -- Standing in a Target at 7 a.m. yesterday, more than two hours into her Christmas shopping, Sara Oliveira decided that the $20 Aqua Doodle coloring toy wasn't going to make the cut on her gift list.

''Forget it," said the 23-year-old Beverly stay-at-home mom. ''For that much, my son can use paper and crayons."

It won't be an extravagant Christmas for the Oliveira family. Worried about rising energy costs -- which are projected to increase more than 30 percent this winter -- Oliveira and her husband José are planning to cut their holiday budget to a lean $500, or about a quarter of what they spent last year. They've kicked cousins off the list, and to maximize their spending, Sara ventured out at 4 a.m. yesterday, so-called Black Friday, when stores open early and roll out what they say are the season's best deals.

Retailers are worried about consumers like Oliveira. About 53 percent of people say they plan to spend less this year than last on holiday shopping -- a huge jump from 29 percent last year, according to a recent survey by New York consulting firm WSL Strategic Retail. Already, chic discounter Target Corp. has lowered sales estimates for November, making investors and other retailers nervous about a bleak season to come.

''This is the first time in five years of annual surveys that American consumers have been this cautious," Michael Silverstein, a senior vice president at Boston Consulting Group, said in a recent report. ''Gas prices, hurricanes, terror may be causing consumers to be more careful with their money. They seem to be watching every penny."

Across the country, bargain hunters hit the shops yesterday, some sleeping over in malls and cars to be the first one in line to snag early-bird specials such as $3.99 DVDs at Best Buy (normally $9.99 to $14.99 each) and $200 Toshiba laptops at Circuit City (normally $800 each).

At the Cambridgeside Galleria Mall, the line outside Best Buy swelled to nearly 1,000 people by 5 a.m. The store's security staff acted like bouncers, keeping spirited shoppers in line, letting them into Best Buy in groups of 20.

East Boston resident Toni Small, 56, hitched a ride with a friend to wait in line at Best Buy in hopes of snagging a $150 computer for one of her seven grandchildren.

''They're the only people on my gift list," she said. ''If I don't get that computer, I'll cry."

Just 20 minutes later, she did.

Like the Oliveiras, shoppers were intent on snatching up doorbuster specials to save money with the prospect of bigger heating bills bearing down this winter. In Massachusetts, residential heating oil costs are projected to rise by an average 30 percent, or about $400, over last winter, and by up to 50 percent, or $800, for natural gas.

Milijana Beslic, who was shopping at T.J. Maxx in Boston's Downtown Crossing, expects her heating bill to soar by a third to about $400 a month this winter. While the 38-year-old Brookline resident plans to spend as much as she did last year -- about $500 for gifts -- she said her budget ''should be bigger." This year's casualty? Her daughters won't be getting the new Xbox 360 game console, which can cost as much as $399.

The term Black Friday is a reference to the beginning of the holiday season when merchants traditionally went from being ''in the red," or losing money, to being profitable, or ''in the black." The Friday after Thanksgiving has been anointed Black Friday and has become one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Last year, the day accounted for about 10 percent of total holiday sales.

The National Retail Federation, a Washington D.C., trade association, projected holiday shopping this year to grow 6 percent to $439.5 billion with consumers spending on average more than $700 -- but that's smaller than the 6.7 percent increase in 2004.

Massachusetts merchants were generally optimistic about traffic, and Mark Whiting, manager of the Northshore Mall in Peabody, said he hadn't seen this kind of ''mob" in seven years. Jeff Armenti, general manager of Filene's at Solomon Pond in Marlborough, reported increased sales of sweaters, down comforters, hats, and gloves -- a boost most likely from people looking for less costly heating options.

Nonetheless, retail analysts say yesterday's robust sales may fizzle before the weekend's over. Candace Corlett, a principal at WSL Strategic Retail, said her organization's nationwide survey showed that consumers across all incomes are becoming thrifty holiday spenders. Traffic yesterday at Cambridgeside Galleria mall was up 4 percent over last year, compared to a 10 percent increase last year over the previous year, according to Issie Shait, mall vice president.

Oliveira and her husband, José, a branch manager for Citizens Bank, are so worried about big energy bills this winter that they have yet to turn on the heat in their two-floor apartment -- except in their 18-month-old son's room.

That means a stingier Christmas -- and taking advantage of Black Friday sales. The couple usually braves the throngs together, but yesterday José was sick so Sara ventured out alone. ''You can't miss it," she said.

Her first stop: Wal-Mart. She sprinted across the discounter's parking lot in Danvers yesterday at 4:20 a.m., getting the 153d spot in line. Other shoppers cut in line, causing shoving and yelling matches that prompted Wal-Mart to call for more police backup.

Oliveira got into Wal-Mart at 5:13 a.m., darting between aisles and shoppers, grabbing what she could as fast as she could. By 5:24, she had checked out spending $123.63 for a portable DVD player, remote control hummer, and other toys.

At Toys ''R" Us, Oliveira skipped the pricey Thomas train sets and opted for a $30 toy keyboard.

Including stops at Best Buy and Target, Oliveira finished her shopping by 7:40 a.m. spending just under $500 with only a few gifts left on her list. Last year, the family bought about $2,000 in presents, including a 27-inch flat tube television and an $80 Nintendo GameCube.

''We just can't have the same kind of Christmas this year," Oliveira said as she shoved the last packages into the trunk of her Chevrolet Equinox. ''But I did pretty well this year. I think."

Jenn Abelson can be reached at abelson@globe.com. Globe staff writer Emily Shartin and correspondents Nathan Hurst and Sarah Metcalf contributed to this report.