Poll shows Patrick pulling ahead of Reilly

BOSTON --Deval Patrick, apparently helped by winning the Democratic State Convention, and Tom Reilly, apparently hurt by anti-incumbent sentiment, switched places in the latest poll on the 2006 gubernatorial race.

Patrick, a former Clinton administration official bidding to become the state's first black governor, led Reilly, a veteran prosecutor and the state's attorney general, by a margin of 31 percent to 25 percent, according to a WHDH-TV/Suffolk University survey released Tuesday.

In May, a similar poll showed Reilly leading Patrick by a margin of 35 percent to 20 percent. Businessman Chris Gabrieli had 22 percent of the vote in June, up from 15 percent in May.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, attributed the shift to Patrick's convention bounce, decreased confidence in the direction of the state, as well as a creeping anti-incumbent sentiment.

"People are feeling their own issues and it's almost to the point where it's bubbling up into voter anger," Paleologos said. "And I think anybody who is affiliated with the (Statehouse) is radioactive, while anybody who's a fresh face has done better."

The poll of 600 registered voters who said they had cast ballots in the 2002 gubernatorial race, was conducted from June 22 through June 26, and has a margin of error of plus or minus about 4 percentage points.

The survey found that only 33 percent of respondents felt the state was headed in the right direction, while 49 percent said Massachusetts was on the wrong track. That's a steady decline from a WHDH-TV/Suffolk University poll in February 2005, when half of those surveyed considered the state to be on the right track, while 36 percent did not.

Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican who is not seeking re-election, saw his favorability/unfavorability rating fall from 55 percent-36 percent in May to 48 percent-43 percent in June.

Favorability and unfavorability ratings fluctuated slightly for Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, a fellow Republican seeking to replace Romney as governor. In this latest poll, about 33 percent viewed her favorably compared to 39 percent who had an unfavorable view; in June, her favorability was roughly the same, 34 percent, but her unfavorability rating was six percentage points lower, at 33 percent.

In potential general election matchups, Reilly leads Healey 40 percent to 27 percent, as did Patrick by 38 percent to 25 percent. Gabrieli, who has spent over $2.5 million on TV advertising, had the strongest result, leading Healey 42 percent to 23 percent.

Among the registered voters surveyed, 37 percent were Democrats, 13 percent were Republican and 50 percent were unaffiliated.

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On the Net:

Suffolk University: http://www.suffolk.edu/opa/news/june27--06poll.html