Taxpayer group casts doubt on Patrick's casino plan

Governor Deval Patrick's promises for using casino revenues would fall short because the stream of gambling dollars would erode over time in the face of regional casino competition, a nonprofit taxpayer group said yesterday.

And even if the money did flow as Patrick expects, it would not be enough to pay for the governor's broad plans for the proceeds, said the organization, the nonpartisan, business-backed Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.

"They're not going to have enough money," the foundation's president, Michael J. Widmer, said yesterday. "And even if they do, it's not going to go that far."

The foundation has been studying Patrick's plan for three resort casinos across the state for the past month and is planning to issue a critical report next week.

Patrick has said his proposal for three casinos in Massachusetts would generate $2 billion in economic activity and create 20,000 permanent jobs.

The state would get a minimum of 27 percent of gambling proceeds which would be used to mitigate negative casino impacts and then benefit the state with what's left over, about $400 million a year. The governor estimates the licensing process, including bidding for the 10-year licenses, would generate between $600 million and $900 million in upfront fees for the state.

Patrick filed his casino bill on Thursday. Yesterday the administration defended its math.

"The administration based its analysis on an independent and credible report commissioned by the treasurer's office," said Kofi Jones, spokeswoman for Housing and Economic Development Secretary Dan O'Connell, Patrick's point man on casinos.

The administration declined to respond to Widmer's comments in detail, she added, because "we are not going to respond to a report that we haven't seen."

Widmer said the governor's revenue estimates will eventually prove too generous.

"It appears reasonable that you can get that level of gaming revenues - if everything is the same as it is today," Widmer said. "But it's not going to stay the same. Connecticut is not going to sit by and say, 'Okay that's fine we're not going to worry about it.' Similarly you've got New Hampshire and Maine. There's a saturation point in New England."

Previously, some gaming specialists have said the governor's estimates appear to be on par with industry standards.

Patrick has proposed using half of the $400 million in annual proceeds to provide income tax credits of an average of $200 to nearly 1 million state residents whose local property tax bills are 2.5 percent or more of their annual income. The other half would be spent on improving roads and bridges.

But based on Patrick's other plans for spending the casino revenues, the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation projects that only between $115 million and $133.8 million would be available for property tax relief - not $200 million.

Likewise, the foundation said, the $200 million that Patrick expects to be available for transportation improvements also would not fully materialize.

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.