Analysis: Romney's 'Mormon speech' risk

Republican presidential hopeful former Massachussets Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a meeting with local residents and students, Friday, Nov. 30, 2007, at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

MANCHESTER, N.H.—In mid-November, Mitt Romney dismissed the prospect of a speech discussing his Mormon faith, using his businessman's bottom-line focus to say, "There's no particular urgency because I'm making progress in the states where I'm campaigning."

Three weeks later, with rival Mike Huckabee, the one-time Southern Baptist minister, surging in Iowa, Romney's calculus has changed.

On Thursday, he will draw national attention to his religion, a subject of curiosity for many people, with a speech at the George Bush Presidential Library and Museum in College Station, Texas.

There are risks, which helps explain why the strategy hasn't been employed during the previous 11 months of his campaign.

"The risk is that it brings to the fore the way Mormonism diverges from conventional Christianity, and it will make people ask the question, `Do I really want to vote for someone who believes that conventional Christian churches are `apostate?'" said Mathew Schmalz, a religious studies professor at the College of the Holy Cross.

Mormons, for example, believe that authentic Christianity vanished a century after Jesus and was restored only through Joseph Smith, whom Mormons consider a prophet. Smith also revised -- and, in his view, corrected -- large sections of the Bible in the 19th century, an act of heresy in the eyes of Protestant and Roman Catholic leaders.

In a poll last month by The Associated Press and Yahoo, half of those surveyed expressed discomfort voting for a presidential candidate who is a Mormon, including 20 percent who said that would make them very uncomfortable. Slightly more Democrats than Republicans said it gave them pause.

So why is Romney bringing it up now?

New polling shows the Republican former Massachusetts governor has surrendered his Iowa lead and is now in a dead heat with Huckabee there.

"It's something Romney has got too deal with," said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Iowa. "He's tried to deal with it by underplaying it and not mentioning it, but the emergence of Huckabee -- who has defined himself in terms of his religious background -- has forced Romney's hand."

Romney has argued that many questions about religion and politics were answered when John F. Kennedy -- the first Catholic elected president -- allayed concerns that he would take directions from Rome. Kennedy addressed the question head-on in 1960 in Houston as he campaigned for the presidency.

Romney said Monday his speech will not focus on the tenets of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the formal name for his Utah-based faith. But he's hoping his willingness to discuss religion openly, and put his wife and sons on stage with him, will convince critical evangelical Christians he's worthy of their support in the approaching Iowa caucuses and later Southern contests across the Bible Belt.

He has noted that other Mormons have run for president -- Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, for example -- and that Democratic Mormons in high office such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada have not faced similar queries, suggesting a partisan tilt to the questions.

While proclaiming to be a "true blue" Mormon, he has criticized the church's past practice of polygamy, angering some members who note the church continues to teach that a Mormon can have multiple wives in heaven, and that taking multiple wives was critical to the church's founding.

Romney's pitch has focused on asking prospective voters to look at his clean-living lifestyle -- he neither smokes nor drinks alcohol -- his 38-year marriage and his five married sons as signs that he shares the most important values with average Americans.

There had been signs that his approach was working, as he took the lead in polls in early voting Iowa and New Hampshire. He also racked up endorsements from prominent Christian and social conservatives, including Bob Jones III, chancellor of Bob Jones University in Greenville, S.C., and Dr. John Willke, a founder and past president of the National Right to Life Committee.

Yet in recent weeks, as more voters have begun to tune into the race, and rivals have eliminated the multimillionaire Romney's exclusive access to the television airwaves, his lead has dwindled.

Huckabee in particular has made religion an issue in Iowa, the state where Romney has always counted on winning to build momentum toward subsequent victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.

"Faith doesn't just influence me; it really defines me," Huckabee says in the second TV commercial he has aired.

Though not naming his rival, he takes a jab at Romney, who acknowledges he switched to become an abortion opponent. Huckabee says, "I believe life begins at conception. We believe in some things. We stand by those things. We live or die by those things."

Romney said he does not believe religious bigotry is at work in the current election, arguing that most Americans select their candidate based on character, experience and vision.

As for those who do reject him for his faith, or may be turned off by his speech, Romney has a devil-may-care attitude.

"I don't worry about those that I won't be able to get to my side of the issue," he told reporters. "I try and focus on those folks who are open and considering who might be the candidate that can help America at this time of critical need."

John Green, senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, said there are significant differences between Romney's situation and Kennedy's in 1960.

Kennedy could take for granted that Americans understood Catholicism, whereas few understand Mormonism. And Roman Catholics make up a large portion of the population.

"The risks of the Kennedy speech were offset by the fact that he had the prospect of mobilizing the Catholic vote," Green said. "Romney doesn't have that opportunity because the Mormon population is so small."

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EDITOR'S NOTE -- Glen Johnson has reported on local, state and national politics since 1985. He covers Mitt Romney's presidential campaign for The Associated Press.

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Associated Press writers Rachel Zoll and Jim Kuhnhenn contributed to this article.